Then

In concert with a one-two combination of bullish private and governmental weather forecasts, the natural gas futures market spiked briefly above the $7.50 mark Wednesday as non-commercial fund traders reversed to the long side of the market. As it turned out, that may have been an expensive decision because prices tumbled Wednesday afternoon nearly as quickly as they had risen.

Pacific Gas & Electric had a systemwide Stage 2 high-inventory OFO with zero tolerance for positive imbalances in place Saturday, then lifted the order Sunday.

After soaring 19 cents Thursday to a high of $4.930 immediately after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 32 Bcf weekly storage withdrawal, which was larger than expected and larger than the five-year average, December gas futures made a sharp reversal, plummeting all the way down to $4.55 by about 1:25 p.m. EST. The December contract ended the day down 12 cents to $4.618.

After gyrating first lower and then higher on the news that 83 Bcf was injected into underground storage facilities last week, natural gas futures shuffled mostly sideways for much of the session Thursday as buyers remained reluctant to accumulate large long positions. The September contract finished the session at $4.718, up a nickel on the day. At 63,615, estimated volume was relatively weak again Thursday, evidence that the market lacks a consensus on price direction.

On their first day as prompt contract at Nymex, September natural gas futures had a little something for both bull and bear. While keeping the downtrend intact by notching another lower-low on the daily chart, the contract managed to post a gain for the session — something the August contract failed to do in each of its last three trading days. September finished at $4.668 Wednesday, up 3 cents from Tuesday’s close. At 49,012, daily trading volume has shrunk as it typically does in the middle of summer.

After a flurry of activity that first dropped and then boosted prices in the first 70 minutes of trading, the August natural gas contract settled down to trade quietly sideways for the remainder of its penultimate trading session Monday. With the contract set to expire Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. EDT, and weather and storage outlooks unchanged from last week, neither bull nor bear were willing or able to exert a price move in their favor.

Florida Gas Transmission kept an Overage Alert Day notice with 20% imbalance tolerance in place through Saturday, then lifted it Sunday. A new OAD notice with 15% tolerance for negative daily imbalances was issued for the pipeline’s market area Monday.

Inconsistent federal policies of encouraging natural gas use for environmental purposes and then restricting access to gas reserves are part of today’s disconnect in supply and demand, which has led to the shut-down of manufacturing plants that can’t pay the high prices, Lee Gooch, head of the Process Gas Consumers (PGC), said last week.

Inconsistent federal policies of encouraging natural gas use for environmental purposes and then restricting access to gas reserves are part of today’s disconnect in supply and demand, which has led to the shut-down of manufacturing plants that can’t pay the high prices, Lee Gooch, head of the Process Gas Consumers (PGC), said earlier this week.