Temperatures

Slightly cooler temperatures in many major eastern marketregions dropped cooling demand a few notches yesterday, but alleyes quickly turned to the northwestern Caribbean Sea whereTropical Depression 11 appeared poised for a weekend visit to theGulf of Mexico.

Citing forecasts of cooler temperatures in the Pacific Northwestfor the holiday weekend, Northwest began allowing both on-systemand off-system balancing Thursday after a long period of barringon-system balancing. However, storage volumes remain high in theJackson Prairie and Clay Basin facilities, limiting operationalflexibility, Northwest said.

Rising temperatures again will mean growing tightness in powermarkets across the country this summer. While industry players havemore experience dealing with shortages and constraints, a trulyefficient market with ample power supply depends upon regulators,according to industry executives.

Despite continued above-normal temperatures across much of theU.S., natural gas futures rumbled higher yesterday as local tradersbid up prices in an attempt to set off buy stops positioned abovethe market. However, by Monday afternoon it was apparent they wereonly partially successful, and after notching a $2.255 high theFebruary contract eased lower to close at $2.216, a 4.3-centadvance for the session. Estimated volume was low with 48,189contracts changing hands.

Fueled by forecasts calling for cooler temperatures throughoutmuch of the country later this week, natural gas futures probedhigher in two distinct buying surges yesterday. The first push cameshortly after Monday’s lower open, when traders bid the Januarycontract to $2.50. However, those gains were erased almost entirelyby early afternoon, intra-day profit taking. But the bulls were notfinished, and after digging in their heels at $2.47, weresuccessful in pushing prices through $2.50 late in the session. TheJanuary contract finished up 6.3 at $2.509.

With freezing temperatures essentially a no-show throughout theU.S., cash prices continued to decline in most markets Wednesday,with the biggest declines occurring in the supply-engorged Rockies.However, except for western points most of the softness was mild,and some Northeast citygates registered moderate upticks.

Due to extremely high storage inventory levels and continuedweather predictions at or above normal temperatures, Williams GasPipeline Central has been experiencing daily storage injectionsthat are substantially above contractual limits, especially onweekends, the pipeline said. Shippers under TSS and FSS rateschedules are required to adhere to their maximum daily injectionquantity and their defined contractual maximum storage quantities.Due to warmer-than-normal weather forecasts, shippers and pointoperators will need to decrease corresponding supplies to matchdeliveries. During this time, the pipeline will not acceptimbalance payback or banking of gas. If corrective action is nottake, an operational flow order may be necessary effective gas daySaturday.

With temperatures across much of the East Coast pushing abovethe 70-degree mark yesterday, natural gas futures traders hadlittle choice but to take prices lower. But in contrast to lastThursday’s price direction, which had the trajectory of a safepushed out of a 10-story building, Monday’s market had a some lifeleft in it, enabling traders to trim losses throughout much of thesession. After reaching a low of $2.805 during the first 30 minutesof trading, the December contract battled back to finish at $2.914,off 4.7 cents for the day. Estimated volume was light with just57,373 contracts changing hands.

As cooling temperatures were giving heat ravaged areas from theUpper Midwest to the Southeast much needed relief, the natural gasfutures market was doing its own cooling off early yesterday asprices dipped to the lowest level since July 23. The move lower wasshort-lived and after opening at $2.50 the August contract wasunable to attract follow-though selling, leaving buyers to bid themarket higher throughout the rest of the day. The prompt monthfinished up 3.2 cents at $2.575.