Temperatures

For the third week in a row, natural gas forwards markets surged by double-digits as much of the U.S. was experiencing bitterly frigid temperatures. And talk of a Polar Vortex in the upcoming week had the market shivering in its snowboots, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

January natural gas is set to open 5 cents lower Tuesday morning at $3.28 as traders note at least a momentary end to progressively colder temperature forecasts and see a somewhat over-exuberant market. Overnight oil markets tumbled.

Mother Nature threw natural gas markets a bone this week when the mere mention of chilly weather sent December forwards prices up an average 5.5 cents between Nov. 11 and 17, NGI’s Forward Look data shows.

The El Nino event that has been helping to dull the worst of the U.S. winter weather won’t dissipate for several more months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), potentially bad news for anyone hoping for higher natural gas prices.

Physical natural gas prices Monday leapfrogged higher as a combination of weather forecasts calling for more seasonal conditions, a strong screen and a soon-to-expire January contract prompted double-digit gains across the board.

Natural gas for weekend and Monday delivery traded sharply lower Friday as traders saw little need to commit to three-day deals, and at the same time weather forecasts in major metropolitan markets called for temperatures to flirt with record highs.

Physical natural gas for Thursday delivery staged a broad, double-digit advance in Wednesday’s trading as a strong cold-weather system was expected to pound Rocky Mountain locations and move eastward impacting the East by the weekend. Nearly all points posted double-digit gains, but the Rockies and Midcontinent held a slight edge to the Midwest and Gulf.

The upcoming winter will be influenced by an intensifying El Nino effect, bringing relatively mild weather to population centers in the Northeast and drought relief to California, according to AccuWeather’s 2015-2016 U.S. Winter Forecast, which was released Wednesday.

The expiring October natural gas futures contract is set to open 6 cents higher Monday morning at $2.62 as overnight weather models changed to a cooler outlook. Overnight oil markets fell.