Technical

With little in the way of technical or fundamental news, naturalgas futures were held to an extremely-tight, 4-cent range in quiettrade yesterday. By finishing at $2.949, the May contract was just0.1 cents below its opening price and 2.2 cents lower for the day.Estimated volume was thin, with only 31,720 contracts changinghands.

The future of merchant power will be inhibited unless there arenew approaches and new perceptions about the technical, economicand political approaches applied, according to a panel of expertsat GasMart/Power 2000 Tuesday in Denver. Regardless of what preciseindustry changes are made, not all of the proposed new power plantswill get built, and distributed generation ultimately will have toplay a role to satisfy the expected growing demand that equates toabout 5 Tcf of added gas over the next 10 years, according topanelists discussing “The Runaway World of Merchant Power.”

Natural gas futures resumed trading Tuesday right where theyleft off last week as traders pressured the market higher in twodistinct buying surges. The first one came at 10:00 a.m. (EST),when February opened a penny above last Friday’s $2.35 high onreports of the coldest air of the season for the Northeast U.S. Thesecond wave of buying came near the close, in a local-led attemptto push the spot month above its 40-day moving average at $2.385.In the end that push was only half-successful; February was able topunch through its 40-day average, but was unable to settle aboveit. The contract closed up 6.1 cents at $2.383 amid light volume ofjust 43,581.

Despite the coldest weather of the season, the futures markettumbled lower yesterday as traders relieved technical overboughtconditions by unloading new long positions. Cash prices, whichslipped for only the second time in eight trading sessions, werealso seen as a negative factor. After opening near the bottom ofMonday’s wide trading range, bears wasted little time takingJanuary down 10.7 cents to settle at $2.522.

A failed technical move higher, followed by a brisk liquidationof fresh longs left even veteran traders shaking their heads in thenatural gas pit Friday, as prices plummeted lower amid heavytrading. The January contract was dealt the largest blow, tumbling13 cents lower to close at $2.331. February also experienced doubledigit losses, slipping 10.3 cents to $2.335.

After a strong opening failed to attract the buying necessary tofill the chart gap up to $2.52, the natural gas futures marketsagged Friday, as traders turned once again to the deleteriouseffects of above-normal temperatures in both short and long rangeforecasts.

Technical factors can, and often do, send prices hurling in adirection contradictory to what underlying supply and demanddictate. While this confounds dyed-in-the-wool fundamentalists anddelights technicians, it can also backfire. Yesterday was one ofthose days.

Led by what one New York local trader called “massive shortcovering,” the futures market erupted 27.1 cents higher yesterdayin a rally that left many market participants incredulous. Comingon the heels of fresh storage data and subsequent gains in Accesstrading Wednesday, the October contract gapped higher at the openyesterday and never looked back, finishing at $2.697.

Buoyed by strong demand for physical supplies and aggressivebuying under last week’s price chart gap, the natural gas futuresmarket continued to whittle away at last week’s collapse. Theremaining three months of the millennium received almost equalbuying interest Tuesday, with October, November and Decemberadvancing 11.6, 11.9, and 11.6 cents respectively. Estimated volumewas hefty, with 81,210 contracts changing hands.