Supportive

September natural gas futures managed to gain ground Thursday as a somewhat supportive inventory report brought buyers off the bench, and the resulting price response began to frame a positive technical picture.

Overall weather fundamentals didn’t seem all that supportive, but prices increased at a large majority of points Monday. The return of industrial load following the weekend was a minor bullish factor, while Friday’s futures gain of 0.3 cent was essentially neutral to the cash market.

Natural gas futures took advantage of a supportive inventory report and worked higher Thursday in active inventory report-driven trading. The Energy Information Administration reported that 245 Bcf was drawn from storage for the week ended Jan. 15, somewhat more than estimates in the 215-230 Bcf range. At the close February futures rose 11.9 cents to $5.615 and March gained 10.1 cents to $5.568. March crude oil fell $1.66 to $76.08/bbl.

A trio of supportive influences — heating load expected to remain ample for a while longer across Canada and much of the U.S.; the previous Friday’s gain of 12.7 cents by January futures; and the return of industrial load from its typical weekend recess — pushed cash prices to double-digit increases across the board Monday.

September natural gas futures briefly rallied Thursday following the release of seemingly supportive inventory data but quickly reversed and ended up in the loss column. September futures fell 14.3 cents to $3.336 and October lost 9.4 cents to $3.673. September crude oil rose 36 cents to $70.52/bbl.

August natural gas futures soared Thursday on factors such as the supportive report of a major investment firm, a forecast of colder-than-normal winter weather and wounded traders seeking to profit from portfolio adjustments by the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). The release of inventory figures by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) was also considered mildly bullish. At the close August futures had jumped 38.5 cents to $3.668, and September added 38 cents to $3.813. August crude oil advanced 48 cents to $62.02/bbl.

Despite modestly supportive prior-day futures, the cash market acknowledged the general bearishness of weather fundamentals in falling at nearly all points Tuesday. The remote threat Monday of an early-season tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico had pretty much disappeared a day later.

Guided by financial and commodity market weakness and the lack of any supportive news, May natural gas futures on Tuesday dropped to a new low for the down move before closing out the regular session at $3.562, down 17 cents from Monday’s finish. The last time a front-month contract settled lower was more than six-and-a-half years ago on Sept. 25, 2002.

With near-term weather forecasts being classified as anything but supportive, March natural gas futures on Wednesday continued to explore new lows in the downtrend. However, an afternoon round of buying sparked a rally that allowed the prompt-month contract to close at $4.214, up 1.1 cents from Tuesday’s close.