Staying

With heating oil prices reaching a record high on Nymex Wednesday, crude oil staying above $52/bbl and gas futures above $7/MMBtu, energy consumers could be in for a whopper winter heating season. Two forecasts released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predict that higher prices will remain the norm over the short term.

With most of the remaining very cold weather staying confined to the Rockies, Upper Plains and western Midwest, a significant rally in prices did not seem to be in the cards. But numbers rose at all points Tuesday between about 15 cents and 30 cents, with a large majority of gains being in the 20s.

Following Monday’s strong launch, this week’s northern heat-inspired bull market appeared to be running out of steam quickly Tuesday when a moderate bias to the downside dominated an overall leveling off of cash prices. Several scattered small gains were outweighed by flat showings and losses ranging up to nearly 20 cents.

The bull market in cash proved to have staying power Thursday, with further advances tending to outstrip those of the day before. Price movement varied widely and inconsistently from slightly higher at several Gulf Coast and Northeast points to as much as about 35 cents higher in the Rockies. A continuation of cold weather throughout the North and much of the West was credited with keeping prices firmer.

With tropical storm threats fading rapidly and demand fundamentals staying on the weak side, cash prices ignored a major expiration-day rebound by October futures and continued to fall everywhere except in the Rockies Thursday. The Rockies gains were small at a dime or less, while losses elsewhere tended to range from about 2 cents in Northern California to nearly half a dollar at some Northeast citygates.

The cash market remained on its uphill trek at all points Wednesday except for the OFO-devastated PG&E citygate, but price increases continued to get smaller than those earlier in the week. A substantial majority of upticks were between 10 and 20 cents.

Cash quotes continued to rise Wednesday in both swing deals fortoday and in what little bit of bidweek business remained to bedone. However, doubt was growing about how much longer theunprecedented recent price strength can be maintained after futuresreacted negatively to a storage report for the first time in morethan a month.

Once again Friday traders who expected the cash market tosuccumb finally to the negative price pressures that have beenbuilding up were left wondering where its support is coming from.Even though the normal drop in demand associated with a weekendseemed real enough, sources said, quotes were flat to down just atouch in nearly all cases.