Spiral

Although certain pockets of the country that use large amounts of gas for power generation may see some increase in natural gas prices over the next couple of months, the overall likelihood of any significant summer jump in gas prices now seems remote, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently concluded. With natural gas storage injections hitting record highs in April through June, EIA sees average wellhead prices in the third quarter continuing on a downward slope, averaging $3.40/Mcf.

Although certain pockets of the country that use large amounts of gas for power generation may see some increase in natural gas prices over the next couple of months, the chance of any significant summer jump in gas prices now seems remote, according to a new Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. With natural gas storage injections hitting record highs in April through June, the agency sees average wellhead prices in the third quarter continuing on a downward slope, averaging $3.40/Mcf.

Inability to find a buyer for its “high-quality” Gulf of Mexicoproperties pushed Miami-based Forcenergy over the edge into Chapter11 bankruptcy this week, Chairman Stig Wennerstrom said in aconference call.

All the ingredients were right for the futures market to spirallower yesterday-a softer cash market, continued bearish weatherforecasts, and an abundance of ready-to-expire March $1.65 and$1.70 put options. But for some reason, all of those factors werenot enough to inspire a sustained round of selling, leaving theMarch contract to chop to either side of unchanged before finishingwith a 0.6-cent gain to $1.71.

Technical factors exert their influence on the natural gasmarket on a daily basis, confounding some traders while rewardingothers. Sometimes technicals are in agreement with underlyingfundamentals as was the case throughout the month of September,when supply tightness met with chart patterns and trend lines thatwere flashing buy signals. The end result: a rally that lifted theOctober contract 40 cents for the month. But, oftentimes thesefactors are not in concert, and trading thus far in October hasbeen just that. Whereas storm-related supply shut-ins supported themarket in September, October has been relatively free of supplydisruptions. That, coupled with U.S. storage inventories nearlyfull, has created an oversupply situation which has weighed onprices most of the month.