Spike

Thursday’s bullish storage report and the screen spike that it inspired obviously had more influence on cash market thinking than some sources had suspected. The prior-day futures strength trumped weakening weather fundamentals and the usual weekend drop in industrial load to send prices higher at nearly all points Friday.

The dynamic duo of natural gas and crude oil followed up price-spike Tuesday with sell-off Wednesday as the July futures contracts dropped 16.2 cents and $2.37 on the day, respectively. All eyes now rest on announcement Thursday, when a number of market-impacting reports are scheduled to go public.

Wednesday’s screen spike obviously trumped somewhat bland weather fundamentals in pushing cash prices strongly higher Thursday. However, a combination of reversals in Nymex’s energy futures complex Thursday and the typical drop in weekend industrial load is a sure bet to spur market softness Friday, several sources agreed.

Various sources mentioned the previous day’s spike in petroleum-based futures, continuing cold weather in northern market areas combined with an anticipated winter storm thrust into western reaches of the Southeast, and popular expectations of a 200 Bcf-plus storage withdrawal report as reasons for a moderate rebound in cash prices Tuesday.

Buoyed by forecasts calling for record low temperatures in parts of New England over the weekend, the natural gas futures market rocketed to its highest level in 10 months — $7.63 — in Friday morning Access trade. But after notching a gap-higher open for the start of the regular trading session, profit-taking entered the fray, rescinding a portion of the day’s advances.

The latest “Monthly Energy Outlook” by analyst Stephen Smith and staff found that the recent spike in natural gas prices “appears overdone,” but the tighter weekly supply/demand balance of the past few weeks justified some of the hike. However, gas prices should moderate going into 2004 and be lower on average than those in 2003.

Although many have questioned the causes of the recent price spike beyond $7/MMBtu, the federal government’s long-term natural gas forecast released Tuesday makes it clear that the gas market has become, and will remain, tighter and more prone to higher prices than previously expected.

Although many have questioned the causes of the recent price spike beyond $7/MMBtu, the federal government’s long-term natural gas forecast released Tuesday makes it clear that the gas market has become, and will remain, tighter and more prone to higher prices than previously expected.

Despite a bullish storage report (111 Bcf withdrawal) and a corresponding price spike at mid-morning, the natural gas futures market dropped lower for the third session in a row Thursday. While bulls still have plenty of ammunition left at their disposal, Thursday’s price action was a strong endorsement for the bears and traders look for modest softness ahead of the weekend.