Speculative

Supported by the unmistakable profile of speculative fund buying, the natural gas futures market made it three in a row Wednesday as prices soared to their highest levels in nearly two months. After quickly filling in a gap on the daily chart, the January contract worked its way higher throughout the trading session on a steady diet of short-covering.

Second quarter physical gas sales volumes showed large cracks beginning to form in the foundation of the energy merchant business. The credit and liquidity crisis was growing rapidly during the quarter and the effects of the regulatory investigation into round-trip trading had taken hold. While there still were large volume increases compared to the previous year’s second quarter (a 38 Bcf/d increase for the top 20), an estimated 10.7 Bcf/d decline in volumes appeared compared to the first quarter of this year. All signs currently point to much greater declines as the year progresses.

In reaction to requests from both the commercial and large speculative trading fund communities, Nymex is ready to launch — possibly as soon as Friday — large order execution (LOX) trading for natural gas, which attempts to match buyers and sellers willing to trade lots of between 250 and 5,000 contracts. Similar to the current open-outcry trading for smaller lots, LOX trading will be conducted in the pit and will be supported by a LOX bookkeeper who will announce quotes, match buyers with sellers and facilitate the order execution.

Buoyed by the first truly bullish weather report of the season, natural gas futures ambled higher Friday as speculative traders covered their shorts ahead of the weekend. Closing at $3.922, the July contract was 13.2 cents higher on the day, but 8.7 cents lower on the week. Estimated volume was light with only 55,639 contracts changing hands.

Amid concerns over another day of rolling blackouts inCalifornia and buoyed by speculative short covering, natural gasfutures erupted higher Tuesday as traders factored in the chancethat the market has found at least a temporary bottom. The Aprilcontract finished 22.4 cents stronger at $5.287, but even moreimpressive was the buying interest in the out-months, which enabledthe 12-month strip to advance 23.6 cents to close at $5.421.

Fueled by continued below-normal temperatures and amidconflicting weather forecasts, natural gas futures galloped higheryesterday as institutional investors covered short positionsestablished over the past two and a half months.

After etching a $2.66 low early yesterday, the futures marketmoved higher on continued speculative buying pressure and bullishconcerns over today’s release of fresh storage data. The Septembercontract finished at $2.708, up 0.8 cents on the day.

After watching prices tumble 10 cents in a tumultuous last hourof trading Thursday, bulls were quick to assume control of themarket Friday as they continued to add to their already hefty longpositions. The September contract finished at $2.698, up 5.1 centsfor the day and 15.5 for the week.

Fueled by a smaller than expected storage injection figure,natural gas futures continued higher yesterday morning asspeculative buying easily erased the Wednesday evening price dip.The buying pressure continued throughout much of the day as bullshad their sights squarely set on last week’s high of $2.72. Theirpersistence paid off, and shortly after 1 p.m. the prompt monthpunched through and notched a $2.75 high on the day. However, notenough follow-through buying was seen entering the market, and theresulting sell-off deposited prices back down near unchanged forthe day. The August contract finished just a half-penny higher at$2.647.