Sources

North America’s conventional onshore and offshore natural gas production continues to decline, and two sources will prove to be ever more crucial to supply: unconventional production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, an energy consultant said Thursday.

Sources agreed that Thursday’s 21.7-cent increase by June futures was the chief impetus for rising cash prices at most points Friday. The return of colder weather in upstate New York and New England, along with storage injection demand, also played a part in the overall firmness.

Breaking down the respective costs of various mainstream home energy sources, natural gas will be the cheapest to use in 2007, according to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. The DOE forecast of projected costs of natural gas, heating oil, electric, propane and kerosene energy use was published in the March 21 Federal Register. According to DOE, one million Btus of natural gas will cost an estimated $12.18 this year — while the same amount of electricity will cost families more than twice as much ($31.21) on average. Natural gas will also cost less than heating oil ($16.01), kerosene ($19.48) and propane ($20.47). “These cost savings can add up quickly, especially for home heating and water heating,” said Tom Moskitis, American Gas Association (AGA) managing director of external affairs. “For water heating, an average household using a conventional storage type water heater would save around $220 per year in energy costs by using a natural gas water heater instead of a similar electric unit. That means the natural gas water heater can pay for itself after just a few years — and save a consumer $2,000 in energy costs over the nine-year life of the appliance.” According to AGA analysis of the DOE’s cost projections, the least expensive way to heat a home in 2007 is with a high-efficiency (94%) natural gas furnace. The association said this option will cost consumers an estimated $801 in 2007, compared with $1,930 for the most expensive home-heating option — an electric resistance system (such as electric warm air furnace heating). For the full year 2007, AGA found that an 84%-efficient oil furnace would cost a consumer $946 while a 94%-efficient propane furnace would cost $1,184. An electric 7.7 HSPF heat pump would come the closest to the natural gas option, costing customers $814 in 2007.

Breaking down the respective costs of various mainstream home energy sources, natural gas will be the cheapest to use in 2007, according to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. The DOE forecast of projected costs of natural gas, heating oil, electric, propane and kerosene energy use was published in the March 21 Federal Register.

As a couple of sources had predicted the day before, the cash market remained close to unchanged Thursday in most cases. Freezing lows forecast for Friday morning in much of the East, even into the Deep South, were augmented by Wednesday’s screen rebound in being responsible for modest gains at a majority of points.

Several top investment banks and private equity firms are said to be partnering on a bid for the exploration and production (E&P) assets of Dominion Resources, sources said last week. The leveraged buyout could top $15 billion.

Purchases for storage injection plays remained the best conjecture that sources could come up with for another day of rising prices at nearly all points Thursday. Heating load remains abnormally light in most areas outside the Rockies, Western Canada and Upper Plains, and attitudes about high storage levels are still bearish.

Just a day after sources had virtually nothing to talk about but how little gas demand there was, some more gas demand apparently showed up. The cash market recorded increases at virtually all points Wednesday (one was essentially flat) as blizzard conditions in the Rockies and Plains states were giving a boost to heating load.

Although a couple of sources were not impressed, a cold front taking overnight lows into the 40s in the Midwest and scheduled to move into the Northeast over the next couple of days appeared to be creating a modicum of heating load that played some role in a strong price rebound at nearly all points Monday. The screen’s increase of nearly a dime on the previous Friday and the return of industrial load from its weekend slump also supported the cash rally.