Softer

What several sources believe may be an extended period of slow, often featureless and softer cash trading was launched Tuesday with all points on the same falling price page. Trends were more consistent across the entire market, with a large majority of points registering declines from a little less than a dime to about 15 cents. More modest drops tended to occur in non-Permian Basin western markets, while larger losses were recorded in the Northeast.

The cash market got little support from the return of industrial load following the weekend. Instead, with a much weaker screen in Nymex’s abbreviated session Monday, and with few areas experiencing bullish weather, most points softened by up to a dime or so.

Prices fell by amounts ranging from about a nickel to 20 cents in Friday’s trading. Most eastern declines were a dime or less, while drops in the teens tended to be concentrated in the West. The softening brought numbers at many eastern points back to the vicinity of first-of-month indexes; western prices, which never got back near indexes during last week’s moderate firmness Tuesday through Thursday, just fell further behind.

Despite only the most marginal firming of weather fundamentals and a softer screen during the morning, nearly all cash points ranged from flat to about a dime higher Tuesday. Most softening was fairly negligible except for double-digit drops at Sumas, Stanfield, Malin and intra-Alberta, which were due largely to cool Pacific Northwest weather, a NOVA tolerance change Sunday to 0/-20% and a constraint on PG&E Gas Transmission-Northwest deliveries (see Transportation Notes).

A diving screen set a softer tone for most points Monday in eastern swing markets. Anticipation of another AGA storage injection report in the vicinity of 100 Bcf contributed to bearish feelings. However, most of the eastern downturns were fairly mild at about 15 cents or less, and much of the West was climbing back up strongly from the price depths seen in Friday’s trading for the weekend.

Except for still-exploding Northern California numbers, the cash market was mostly in standpat mode Thursday. Eastern prices tended to move little if at all, and there was generally moderate softness in the Southwest basins and Rockies.

Despite prospects for a potentially severe winter storm in theNortheast and moderate screen firmness, the cash market generallyranged from flat to down about 20 cents Friday, as falling weekenddemand made an impact. Northern California numbers retreated fromThursday’s spike, but the Southern California border tacked on morethan $2.50 to its market-leading average.

The market went into a holding pattern for the most partThursday with a mix of moderate increases and decreases that wasweighted slightly to the downside. A big screen runup after mostcash business was completed had several traders expecting that cashwould take that development as a cue to avoid weekend softnesstoday.

Except for moderate California upticks, the cash marketcontinued to soften Friday but by much smaller amounts than the daybefore. Most points ranged from flat to down about 30 cents, butdeclines were larger at Stanfield and several Northeast citygates.