Snap

With both New England’s natural gas and electric systems put to the test during the deep freeze of January 2004, both industries are quickly realizing that better communication is needed because their respective commodities are becoming more entwined.

Buoyed by sustained strength in exports as well as snap reactions to cold fronts on commodity markets, Canadian forecasters have raised their expectations for 2003 natural gas prices.

On the heels of a statewide cold snap fostering near-record natural gas send-outs late last month, Pacifiic Gas and Electric Co. last week reported that its retail natural gas rates are down by 64% from their record high a year ago in the midst of California’s energy price/supply crisis. The average retail bill expected this month is about $41, based on a 27 cents/therm wholesale cost, compared to average bills for February 2001 of $113, based a $1.28/therm wholesale cost.

On the heels of a statewide cold snap fostering near-record natural gas send-outs last week, Pacifiic Gas and Electric Co. Monday reported that its retail natural gas rates are down by 64% from their record high a year ago in the midst of California’s energy price/supply crisis. The average retail bill expected this month is about $41, based on a 27 cents/therm wholesale cost, compared to average bills for February 2001 of $113, based a $1.28/therm wholesale cost.

Another Canadian takeover bid by Hunt Oil and a snap decisionduring the holiday season by the National Energy Board, highlightthe industry’s eagerness to take advantage of soaring gas marketswith new Canadian supplies.

After watching the market tumble 7.1 cents lower Monday, naturalgas bulls at the New York Mercantile exchange dug in their heelsyesterday as prices careened off support in the low $2.70s andmoved higher throughout the session. By virtue of its 3.7-centadvance and $2.751 settlement, the April contract nudged its wayback up well within the $2.67-90 trading range that has limitedprice movement since March 1. The May contract followed suit,trading up 3.7 cents to finish at $2.781, in a session that sawmoderate activity of 57,862.

“You can’t win the game if you give the ball away” was aseemingly logical but somewhat superfluous observation made byHoward Cosell on Monday Night Football back in the 1980s. If Cosellwere to have commented on the natural gas futures market yesterday,he probably would have said something like, “The market couldn’tmove lower because there was no additional selling.” And althoughthat comment would also have been redundant, it aptly describes thenature of yesterday’s price action at the New York MercantileExchange, where once early selling dried up, the market was free tobubble higher in near-frictionless trade. The May contract finishedup 3.2 cents to $2.128.

The severe winter cold snap last week triggered unprecedentedprice spikes at spot points in the Pacific Northwest and NorthernCalifornia. PG&ampE Citygate prices hit $6.18/MMBtu on Monday andwere near $5 on Tuesday. Prices jumped to $11.05/MMBtu at Sumas onthe previous Friday for weekend flow, and on Monday and Tuesdaystayed north of $6.