Repeat

If hurricanes stay clear of the Gulf of Mexico again this summer, the U.S. natural gas market can expect to see a repeat of last summer when interruptions were at a minimum and prices were basically kept in check, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) said last Wednesday.

If hurricanes avoid the Gulf of Mexico again this summer, the U.S. natural gas market can expect to see a repeat of last summer when interruptions were at a minimum and prices were basically kept in check, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) said Wednesday.

Friday’s cash trading activity was largely a repeat of that on Thursday: mixed price movement with most points averaging flat or only a few pennies up or down and small gains handily outweighing small losses. Frigid weather outside the South and a five-trading day streak of prior futures advances (which barely got extended by 2.8 cents Friday) were the chief impetus for overall slight firmness.

Borrowing the premise from the 1993 movie Groundhog Day in which Bill Murray’s character is doomed to continually repeat the same day of his life forever, natural gas futures traders find themselves continuing to assault $8 psychological resistance in the December contract only to experience the same result each time — failure. On Monday the prompt month reached a high of $8 in afternoon trading before sinking to close at $7.894, up a dime from Friday’s close.

With the potential of the Arkoma Basin’s Woodford Shale play just coming into focus, many in the industry are hoping for a repeat of the success seen in the Barnett Shale of North Texas. For its part, Newfield Exploration Co. thinks it’s time to start constructing pipeline to get gas to market.

Wednesday saw a repeat of Tuesday’s mixed pricing, and again moderate gains dominated the market. But outside the Midcontinent few points saw increases of a dime or more, and flatness was much more prevalent than before. Some heating load was developing in the Midwest, some cooling load remained in the desert Southwest and parts of inland California, and prices had a modicum of support from the screen’s nickel rise on Tuesday.

Thursday’s cash market was almost a repeat of the one the day before, with few points straying more than a few pennies up or down from flat. Many were unchanged from Wednesday averages as retreating cooling load in the Northeast and Midwest reached a virtual tie with a modest prior-day futures advance in influencing cash numbers.

Thursday’s trading for end-of-March flows was a near-repeat of the day before — generally modest price movement both up and down, with South and East Texas joining Northeast citygates in seeing much of the softening and gains being recorded at almost all points in the Midcontinent and West.

Looking ahead to a repeat of last week’s moderation of cold weather after midweek but acknowledging that for now heating load remains fairly robust, the cash market turned in a mixed performance Tuesday. If not for the screen’s 42-cent gain Monday, softening might have been more pervasive than it actually was Tuesday, one source said.