Rebound

After careening almost $1.50 lower early last week, bulls atNymex fought back Thursday and Friday as traders glommed on to somemodestly constructive technical and fundamental factors. When allthe dust had cleared and the orders were tabulated, the numbersspeak for themselves. The February contract lost 13% of its value,tumbling 96.3 cents lower, to go off the board at $6.293 Monday.After following in February’s footsteps Tuesday and Wednesday, thenew prompt month, March, erupted $1.036 higher to close the week at$6.743.

Propelled by a strong showing in the overnight Access tradingsession, natural gas futures clawed their way higher on the openThursday as short-term traders alleviated oversold positions.

Buoyed by gains achieved in the overnight Access tradingsession, natural gas futures finished on a positive note Friday, asshort covering took back a small percentage of last week’s massivelosses. The February contract led the way, rumbling 32.3 centshigher to close at $7.459. Meanwhile, the out months were muchquieter with smaller gains in March, April and May almost offsetby modest losses in the rest of the strip.

There was to be no rebound Tuesday from holiday weekendsoftness. In fact, price drops got much larger than those on thepreceding Friday. The range of declines was delineated by Stanfielddown only about 15 cents and the California border falling morethan a dollar. Drops ranged about 20 cents to either side of 50cents at a large majority of other points.

A rebound from last week’s swing price weakness came sooner thanmany traders expected, but it happened for precisely the reasonthey had anticipated. “When we finally get some cold weather,prices will start turning upward again” summarized the conventionalwisdom of a number of traders last week.

For the second Wednesday in a row, natural gas prices were hitwith a wave of selling seconds after the release of fresh storagenews. However, whereas the market closed on its daily lows lastWednesday, it finished on its highs yesterday as bargain huntinglifted the November contract almost 15 cents above its $5.15 lowWednesday.

The price roller coaster continued in the natural gas pit at theNew York Mercantile Exchange Thursday as traders went through themotions of checking the latest hurricane forecast and then tradedaccordingly. Yesterday that translated into selling, by trade andlocals alike, as they reduced their long exposure on the news thatDebby had weakened into a tropical wave.

Adding to gains achieved during Monday’s impressive rebound,natural gas futures erupted higher yesterday as traders bid theJuly contract to a new all-time high for a prompt month at Nymex.After gapping higher to open at $4.65, July checked back and forth,before eventually closing at $4.686, up 12.6 cents for the session.

Prices softened as expected Wednesday in response to partialabatement of the heat wave that plagued the Northeast and MiddleAtlantic earlier this week. But based on the sharp spike in futuresfollowing the afternoon release of AGA’s storage report, sourcesshowed no hesitation in saying they expect cash to return to anupward direction today.