Rallies

Bulls staged a surprising 9.4% rally in March futures to a high on Friday of $2.21 from Wednesday’s low of $2.02. March ended Friday up 4.1 cents to $2.191, slightly off its daily high and 2.6 cents from its $2.165 low, leaving many observers on the edges of their seats wondering if the large number of speculative shorts would reconsider their exposure and propel the market into the $2.20s and possibly $2.30s.

The big rallies that had developed late in Friday’s trading for the weekend provided a solid base for spectacular price increases Monday. Gains of about 30 cents or more were common in the East, while the West, where winter storm watches were posted for parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, registered upticks that exceeded 40 cents in most cases.

Most eastern markets drifted mildly lower Monday, with most declines in single digits and only a few barely surpassing a dime. The West tended to range from flat to moderately higher in the Rockies and Southwest basins, accompanied by larger California gains. It wasn’t that the West was so strong, sources said, but rather that the region was climbing back out of the deep price holes it had dug for itself Friday.

Facing the prospect of Davis administration regulators sacking electric retail competition, an alliance of large and small interests Tuesday urged California officials to consider alternatives that do not require shutting down the last vestiges of its 1996 restructuring law permitting direct access contracts.

A diving screen set a softer tone for most points Monday in eastern swing markets. Anticipation of another AGA storage injection report in the vicinity of 100 Bcf contributed to bearish feelings. However, most of the eastern downturns were fairly mild at about 15 cents or less, and much of the West was climbing back up strongly from the price depths seen in Friday’s trading for the weekend.

The price picture looked pretty bleak for bullish types earlierthis week, but they were taking heart Wednesday from a cashrebound, further strength in futures and signs that winter weatherlikely will return for a new siege, just as the groundhog predictedlast Friday. Most eastern gains tended to be in the teens, but mostwestern points rose by 20 cents or more, with the PG&E citygate(up almost $1.50) as the leader of the pack.

Nearly all points continued to slide a few more cents Thursday,but afternoon rallies by three key April futures contracts (naturalgas, crude oil and heating oil) had many traders believing thatwould spark a rebound in the gas market today.

For the most part, late-December incremental prices continued todrift lower by small amounts Tuesday in quiet activity as tradersincreasing focused their attention on January business. Evenbidweek was still dragging, complained a Midcontinent producer;”there’s lot of talking, but few actual deals.”

Frenetic activity continued in the natural gas pit yesterday ina see-saw battle that produced two rallies, two dips and oneenormous 11.5-cent trading range. By the time the dust had settledand the orders were processed, the battle-weary August contractmanaged a 3.2-cent advance to settle at $2.574 on its penultimatetrading day.