Problem

In an effort to deal with the serious decontracting problem onits pipeline system caused by the addition of Northern Border’sChicago expansion and the Alliance Pipeline project, TransCanadasaid last week it is strongly considering filing an applicationwith the National Energy Board this month to raise the floor pricefor interruptible and short-term firm transportation service,something the pipeline’s shippers almost certainly will oppose.

For the second trading session in a row yesterday the Maycontract dipped lower at the open, but was unable to completelyfill in the chart created between last Wednesday’s $2.18 high andThursday’s $2.20 low. And once that early selling pressure driedup, the market was free to rally on waves of buying by both localand commercial traders. The May contract pressed higher throughoutthe session, spiking above the $2.30 level at the closing bellbefore settling at $2.299, a 7.3-cents advance on the day. Atechnical difficulty at Nymex last night suspended the after-hourscomputer-only Access trading session.

Some speculated Alliance Pipeline might be hurt by FERC’s movenot to issue preliminary determinations (PDs) to the four projectsthat would provide takeaway capacity for Canadian gas from Chicagoto East Coast markets. But Alliance officials last week quicklydismissed that notion.

A combination of copious amounts of gas both in the pipe andground, and very little weather demand had the stage set perfectlyfor the futures market to trend lower Monday. But despite all theominous fundamental news and bearish sentiment, few traders wereprepared for the price erosion that occurred in early tradingyesterday. The January contract gapped dramatically lower on theopen and quickly set a $1.97 low in the first half hour of trading.That left the spot month to trade sideways for the rest of the daybefore settling at $1.976. In doing so, the January contractcrushed its previous life-of-contract low of $2.085.

A strong cash market and a shift in attention from the bearishsupply situation to the bullish demand forecasts collaboratedThursday to send futures prices spiraling higher. That enabled theDecember contract to move through a couple of key chart levels enroute to its settlement of $2.553. Estimated volume, which has beennotably less than usual this week, registered a respectable 88,159.

The futures market experienced heavy expiration-day lossesyesterday, adding to price erosion that occurred Tuesday. Novemberwas particularly hard hit, slipping 13.6 cents to settle at $1.972.Weak October cash prices and follow-through selling by traders whohave elected to ignore and discount the threat of Hurricane Mitchwere reasons cited for the decline. Trading was active, with nearly150,000 contracts changing hands.

FERC has given the go-ahead to a major settlement that attemptsto resolve the looming decontracting problem on Texas EasternTransmission’s (Tetco) system while offering a significant ratereduction to its customers.