Price

Between winter weather that finally was starting to moderate forreal and the normal load decline associated with a holiday weekend,most traders were confident that Friday’s cash market would befalling substantially. Imagine their surprise at an overall flatperformance that even included modest upticks at a few Gulf Coastpoints

The severe winter cold snap last week triggered unprecedentedprice spikes at spot points in the Pacific Northwest and NorthernCalifornia. PG&ampE Citygate prices hit $6.18/MMBtu on Monday andwere near $5 on Tuesday. Prices jumped to $11.05/MMBtu at Sumas onthe previous Friday for weekend flow, and on Monday and Tuesdaystayed north of $6.

The cash market has plenty of fundamentals to deal with goinginto the Christmas weekend. But despite widespread freezing weatherand a profusion of actual and/or potential pipeline OFOs (question:does a Strained Operating Condition mean CIG has a hernia?), priceswere unusually bearish Wednesday in light of what many wouldconsider bullish conditions. Most declines were in the neighborhoodof a dime, although some Western points that had been flying highearlier in the week were measuring their losses in terms ofdollars.

Although it was nowhere near as dramatic as the price move thatdeposited prices near all-time winter lows, last week’s futuresgains-slowly and steadily-were gaining the attention and acceptancefrom both technical and fundamental traders. And despite a largestorage surplus and continued uncertainty about winter weather, ifprices are able to trend higher into the New Year, the market willlook back at last week’s rebound as the end of the downtrend. Theprompt January contract chopped higher Friday, making daily highsby noon before softening into the closing to finish up a penny at$2.074.

The cash market started out this week looking remarkably similarto the way it did last week, but on a reduced scale. Because pricesweren’t digging out from nearly as deep a weekend hole as the oneof Dec. 5-7, Monday’s increases weren’t quite as spectacular asthose from the previous week but were still significantnonetheless.

Fueled by what one veteran trader called one of the mostdramatic price moves in the history of the natural gas market,futures prices rallied Monday as the prompt January contractsettled up 12.3 cents to $2.101. But that daily change paled incomparison to the enormous advances seen in the cash market wheredaily gains registered more than a half-dollar for many pipes.Forecasts calling for cooler temperatures for most of the countryand undervalued cash prices were reasons for the market strength,sources agreed.

The hemorrhaging of prices that marked the first two days oftrading in the December aftermarket came to a virtual standstillWednesday even as unseasonably warm weather continued in much ofthe nation east of the Rockies. Except for an increase of more thana dime into Northwest at Sumas, all points were either flat or upor down only a few pennies. The reason for the surge at Sumas andwhy it was handily outstripping Rockies prices was that distributorBC Gas in southern British Columbia was drawing more heavily thanusual on discretionary supplies, one source said.

Mild softness dominated Monday’s cash trading in spite of a bigdrop on the futures screen. Drops of up to a nickel or so tended tocluster in eastern markets, where late-autumn weather is relativelymild. Meanwhile, flatness prevailed in much of the West as theNational Weather Service is predicting below-normal temperatureslater this week for the Rockies and interior parts of SouthernCalifornia.

A constructive price move near the close of trading Tuesday anda well-bid over-the-counter market Wednesday morning had bullschamping at the bit early yesterday. But by afternoon, forecastscalling for a moderation of the cold weather gripping much of themiddle of the country had begun to filter through the futuresmarket which left prices to trickle lower. Both the December andJanuary contract slipped 4.6 cents, settling at $2.432 and $2.557respectively.