Prediction

Even though it says “accurate and precise prediction of commodity prices is futile,” Simmons & Co. International nevertheless makes a stab at it, increasing its natural gas price forecast for 2002 from $2.25/Mcf to $2.90/Mcf, in line with a rise in the forecast for crude oil from $21 a barrel to just over $24 a barrel.

A source’s prediction the day before of a potential price “bloodbath” in trading for the long Thanksgiving Day weekend (see Daily GPI, Nov. 21) came true in spades Wednesday. The market’s hemorrhaging was severe, as plunges of around 70 cents or more were common in all regions despite a mostly flat screen, and the OFO-devastated Southern California border dropped about a dollar.

A revised National Weather Service forecast, expanding theprediction of below normal temperatures for the Christmas weekendto the entire United States except for the sparsely populated UpperPlains, kept most prices from softening Friday, as some hadanticipated. Except for the still-most-expensive West Coast market,all other points realized gains from about a dime (San Juan Basin)to a little more than 50 cents (Northern Natural Gas market area).

Energy traders would do well to fasten their seatbelts for thecontinuing convergence of natural gas and power if the predictionof Coastal Corp. CEO David A. Arledge is correct. Increasingly, theprice of gas – the second most volatile energy commodity – will belinked with the price of power – the most volatile energycommodity, Arledge said.

Anyone working for a gas company today won’t be in a few yearsif a prediction of BT Alex Brown Managing Director Edward TirelloJr. comes true. “On convergence, I believe that the electriccompanies will buy up all of the gas companies over the next fiveyears, and that will be the end of it.”

Anyone working for a gas company today won’t be in a few yearsif a prediction of BT Alex Brown Managing Director Edward TirelloJr. comes true. “On convergence, I believe that the electriccompanies will buy up all of the gas companies over the next fiveyears, and that will be the end of it.”