Plunge

Prices were mixed Wednesday, but lower again in most cases. A screen plunge of nearly 40 cents the day before clearly outweighed rising cooling load in some areas in vying to be the primary cash market influence. Continued concern about the potential for running out of storage injection space later this summer or fall also contributed to overall cash softness.

Buffeted once again by a screen plunge the day before and still finding weather-related demand hard to come by, the cash market continued to see prices fall in most cases Friday. However, flat to nearly a dime higher numbers at the Southern California border and a few Midcontinent/Midwest points averted a clean sweep of softness.

After recording a high of $7.550 earlier in the session Friday, March natural gas futures took a plunge late in the session on a run of selling, recording a low of $6.900 before going off the board at $7.112, down 34.6 cents on the day and 7 cents lower than the previous Friday’s close. Taking over as prompt month over the weekend, the April contract on Friday closed 23 cents lower at $7.313.

As a producer predicted, Monday’s screen plunge of 61.8 cents was able to more than offset this week’s surge of colder weather and induce falling cash prices at all points Tuesday. High comfort levels with storage inventories contributed to the bearishness.

With disappearing heating load and the previous day’s screen plunge exacerbated by the extra reduction of industrial demand associated with a long holiday weekend, cash prices tanked by more than a dollar — more than $2 in quite a few cases — across the board Friday.

A screen plunge of nearly 90 cents the day before virtually assured further cash softness Friday, but the physical market also was depressed by moderating trends from the heating load created by widespread severely cold weather in the first half of the week and by the drop in industrial load that occurs over a weekend.

Forecasts of moderating weekend weather, a prior-day screen plunge, a bearish storage report and the dip in industrial load that is typical of a weekend ganged up on the cash market Friday and forced prices lower by triple-digit amounts at all points. Despite the big weekend losses, prices were up overall for the week due to the hefty gains that dominated the first four days.

While many expected natural gas futures to sink a little bit early this week following the June contract’s 68-cent plunge last week, the prompt month reversed course Monday with the support of the petroleum futures complex.

Seeming to hitch its wagon to petroleum futures once again, June natural gas followed both crude’s plunge in the morning and its climb in the afternoon. With a hint of irony, June natural gas ended up settling 5.2 cents lower on the day at $6.748, the same price at which May natural gas futures expired a day earlier.