Observers

There is a growing consensus among market observers that working gas levels in storage could fall sharply this winter possibly to near historic lows by April, but several veteran industry analysts warn against crying “the sky is falling” too soon. They say the current amount of working gas in storage appears adequate to handle this winter’s demand, particularly when compared to average storage levels in the mid-1990s.

Natural gas wellhead deliverability is weaker than many observers realize, and the natural gas futures strip is undervalued, according to Kevin Petak, director at Arlington, VA-based consulting firm Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA). Petak believes $5 Henry Hub gas prices will arrive very soon — most likely in January or February — and prices should average $5.35 next year.

Natural gas wellhead deliverability is weaker than many observers realize and the natural gas futures strip is undervalued, according to Kevin Petak, director at Arlington, VA-based consulting firm Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA).

While many observers, including the Energy Information Administration (EIA), expect natural gas spot prices to continue a downward correction in the near term, consultants at Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said they believe the production decline combined with above normal temperatures this summer in key demand regions could spell trouble in the form of a tight marketplace and higher gas prices.

Given the amount of new generation coming online, observers of energy trading markets shouldn’t expect to see the return of volatility to those markets in the short term, a top executive with Allegheny Energy Global Markets told an audience of investment professionals attending a Deutsche Bank-sponsored electric power conference last Tuesday.

Few if any market observers a month ago predicted near-month futures prices would be approaching $3.50/MMBtu in March given the large surplus of natural gas in the nation’s storage fields and the weak economy. But it happened, and now consultants and analysts are battling over which path prices will take in the next few months. In one corner, Houston-based Simmons & Company International believes the puzzling spurt in natural gas prices is over, while in the other corner analysts at Raymond James & Associates say it’s here to stay.

Many observers have been scratching their heads lately over the inability of the futures and cash markets to show significant declines despite overwhelming fundamental reasons to do so. There’s been very little cold weather to speak of this heating season and gas storage levels are at record highs with 37% more gas in storage than at the same time last year, yet January gas futures remained in the mid $2.60s on Tuesday, down only 2.9 cents on the day to $2.657.

In an effort to step up the competition with brokers and EnronOnline, which some observers expect to suffer from Enron’s financial woes, the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) started offering exchange of futures for swap (EFS) transactions last week as a first step in its plans to offer clearing services to the over-the-counter (OTC) natural gas market. In the first full day of EFS demand, 11,100 contracts changed hands and the exchange promptly lowered its fee for the deals to $2.50 per side from $10.

Many market experts were stunned last week by the American Gas Association’s (AGA) report of a 3 Bcf net injection into the nation’s storage facilities during the week ending Aug. 10. An injection that small in August is unprecedented and had an immediate impact on prices, pushing near-month futures up 37 cents on Wednesday with a similar increase in cash Thursday morning. However, many marketers said they were attempting to ignore the data as an anomaly or an outright mistake by AGA or the storage companies it surveys.