Mildly

As expected, the cash market responded to what was considered amildly bearish storage report with mostly mild declines Thursday.Eastern points generally fell in the vicinity of a nickel exceptfor some Northeast citygate drops around a dime, while the Westranged from flat to down as much as a quarter (Stanfield).

The slippage in April swing prices that had begun mildlyWednesday gained more momentum Thursday as quotes fell by about anickel or more almost across the board except in California, led bydrops of about 15 cents at some Northeast citygates. May bidweekprices also softened, but only by a couple of pennies or so in mostcases, sources said.

Even a mildly hot summer in California this year could bringall-time high power price spikes and could put a severe strain ongenerating capacity, according to energy officials in theCalifornia General Services Department (GSD). Based on state datanow available, GSD officials told a California energy conferencelast Thursday prices could be two to three cents-per-kwh above lastyear’s averages for the three traditionally hottest months,although last year was designated as a “cool” summer.

The bloom was off the Northeast price rose Friday as weekendcitygate quotes began plunging back to earth. The non-Northeastmarket ranged from flat to a little more than a nickel higher.

Northeast citygates continued to scale new price heightsWednesday as the region braced for another onslaught of what isturning out to be the most severe winter storm of the currentseason by far. Transportation-constrained Transco Zone 6-NYC againtopped the price list with quotes that ran as high as $11, and acouple of sources confirmed that the point had already traded forFriday flow at $13.50. Other citygates in the region were allaveraging more than $5 Wednesday.

With signs that the touch of winter experienced earlier thisweek in the Northeast was already starting to subside, nearly allof the cash market ranged from flat to about a dime lowerWednesday. Most production area and Midwest citygate points fell bya nickel or less. The declines of a dime or more tended to clusterin the Northeast.

Most of the overall swing market was mildly higher Tuesday, withwestern-especially Rockies-points tending to exhibit the most pricestrength with gains of up to a dime. A few PG&E citygate quotessurpassed $3, marking the first time that area has been hit (inU.S. dollars) since Transco Zone 6-NYC topped out at $3.02 forSept. 15 flows.

What had seemed like a mildly softer early aftermarket in swingdeals done Tuesday got much weaker Wednesday. Influenced greatly bya falling screen but also by a continuing lack of positivefundamentals, nearly all points were down a dime or more. NorthernCalifornia was a rare bastion of relative market strength in theU.S. Malin and the PG&E citygate dropped only about a nickel asPG&E repeated last week’s unusual action of issuing alow-inventory OFO on a summer weekday.

Cash quotes were mildly softer Monday, with price movementranging from none (flat) to down about a nickel. A July futuresdrop of just over 7 cents was the obvious explanation for cashweakness to many sources. A Houston-based aggregator asserted that”lack of weather” in both the Gulf Coast production area andNortheast market area exacerbated the screen’s negative influence.Forecasts continue to call for hotter temperatures later this week,he said, “but it’s not happening yet.” Even with Monday being theofficial start date for summer, recent high thermometer readings inthe South are only rarely getting above the 80s, he said.