Influence

Trading on technical factors and influence from the liquid hydrocarbons, December natural gas futures explored lower on Tuesday. The prompt month notched a low on the day of $8.46 before settling at $8.567, down 15.3 cents on the session.

Trading on technical factors and influence from the liquid hydrocarbons, December natural gas futures explored lower on Tuesday. The prompt month notched a low on the day of $8.46 before settling at $8.567, down 15.3 cents on the session.

It didn’t take long for “storm hype” to get blown away as a price booster. Even with Minerals Management Service (MMS) reporting that more than 2 Bcf/d of Gulf of Mexico production was shut in Wednesday due to the proximity of Tropical Storm Bonnie, all points fell between a dime and about a quarter in cash trading.

With the middle-of-the-road natural gas storage report unable to exert any influence on the natural gas futures market, the newly-minted prompt month was left with no other choice than to follow big brother crude’s lead lower in Thursday trading.

Despite a higher than expected weekly natural gas storage injection of 15 Bcf, May gas futures rebounded from an initial low of $5.630 and were able to piggyback on the crude oil market and settle at $5.734, only one cent lower on the day.

The General Accounting Office (GAO) said last Monday it was unable to determine conclusively if energy executives and companies may have influenced the drafting of the Bush administration’s national energy policy due to the successful efforts of Vice President Dick Cheney and other energy task force members to stall its investigation.

The General Accounting Office (GAO) said Monday it was unable to determine conclusively the extent to which energy executives and companies may have influenced the drafting of the Bush administration’s national energy policy due to the successful efforts of Vice President Dick Cheney and other energy task force members to stall its investigation.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental or technical influence to provide direction, the natural gas futures market took the path of least resistance Wednesday in extending to new nine-week lows. Although the series of lower lows and lower highs on the daily bar chart is a very real concern for bulls, they were impressed by the market’s ability to rebound off its mid-morning lows. A intense, albeit brief, sell-off in the afternoon sent prices back beneath the $5.00 mark, but that, too, became a buying opportunity. The May contract finished at $5.065, down 6 cents for the day, but up 13.5 cents from its $4.93 low.

While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to see a moderating influence of El Nino producing warmer than normal winter temps across the northern half of the country straight on through March 2003, other forecasters are pointing out that prediction has been wrong so far and will continue to be wrong.