Increases

Once again the bulls were on a rampage Tuesday, and sourcesexpected them to still be running today. Increases of about a dimeor more at all points dominated the cash market for the secondstraight day. Prices got support from a cold snap in thenortheastern U.S. and eastern Canada, hot weather from Californiathrough the Southwest into Texas and Louisiana and parts of theMidcontinent, and continued screen strength—both in natural gasand crude oil futures. Gas gained just over a dime, and crude rosejust over a dollar to finish above $22/bbl.

Despite double-digit physical market increases and an earlyretest of the $2.80 level, natural gas futures tanked yesterday astraders weighed the impact of warm weather forecasts for the firstpart of October. After holding in the high $2.70s for most of themorning Monday, the November contract was hit with a round ofselling in the afternoon that pushed the price 16.8 cents lower toclose at $2.625.

Most of the overall swing market was mildly higher Tuesday, withwestern-especially Rockies-points tending to exhibit the most pricestrength with gains of up to a dime. A few PG&E citygate quotessurpassed $3, marking the first time that area has been hit (inU.S. dollars) since Transco Zone 6-NYC topped out at $3.02 forSept. 15 flows.

“Storm hype” was billed as the overriding reason for Friday’scontinuation of this week’s price increases that accomplished whathardly anbody thought possible: bring some points back to eitherside of September indexes. The new gains defied the usual weekenddemand slump, growing complacency about finishing storage injectionseason comfortably, a mostly negative screen and cool, autumn-likeweather in many major market areas. In wide-ranging trading,influenced largely by a similarly volatile futures contract, mostcash points ranged from barely up to as much as 15 cents higher.The majority of the gains tended to be on either side of a dime.

Following aggressive buying and double-digit increases achievedin Wednesday’s Access trading session, the futures market cooledoff yesterday as physical traders eschewed the opportunity to belong gas at the $2.70 level for the month of August. Once themarket was unable to get past the $2.72 high from Access sellerscame out of the woodwork and demoted the September contract to$2.569, down 3.7 cent for the session.

After Monday’s almost universal double-digit increases, cashprices were on auto-pilot Tuesday, as they trended down from theprevious day’s results. Many traders said Monday’s run-up would bethis week’s high, pointing to moderating weather and the thecompletion of pipeline maintenance projects.

Increases of more than a dime were the norm Monday as 80-90degree temperatures throughout the eastern half of the country andthe ensuing electric generation load caused gas prices at allpoints to rise substantially. New York Citygate led the way withprices increasing from the low $2.50s on Friday to the mid $2.70syesterday. The need for Northeast electric generation was socritical yesterday that the New England ISO issued a “powerwarning” and asked consumers to voluntarily curb power use.

In an effort to improve its power market monitoring capabilitiesin light of the price spikes and market disruptions that occurredlast summer, FERC last week changed the reporting requirements forthe 500-600 licensed power marketers.

In an effort to improve its power market monitoring capabilitiesin light of the price spikes and market disruptions that occurredlast summer, FERC yesterday changed the reporting requirements for600 power marketers. The Commission said it intends to remove awaiver of its rules that was granted to power marketers and powerproducers with market-based rates that allowed them to refrain fromfiling their long-term contracts with their customers. The changeputs power marketers on a more level playing field with traditionalutilities, which currently have to file their long-term agreements.