Holiday

With moderating temperatures, a hurricane lull and an upcomingholiday weekend pulling the rug out from under bidweek cash prices,the Nymex October futures contract also decided to take the plungeyesterday, plummeting into the $2.70s before settling in thelow-$2.80s and adding to last week’s market dip. Some observersbelieve October is destined to test at least the $2.60s before thisdrop is over.

The usual demand fall-off associated with a holiday weekendfailed to prevent Friday’s cash market from rejecting the slightlysofter trend that had appeared to be developing Thursday. Insteadthe long-lasting trend of little to no price movement reasserteditself at nearly all points. A Western source said recent tradinghas been “like that movie Groundhog Day, because every morning Iwake up and the market is at the same place. The only difference isAndie McDowell [Bill Murray’s female co-star in the movie] has yetto show up.”

As expected, Christmas Eve was pretty much a non-event in thecash market. Virtually all holiday weekend business through todayhad been taken care of Wednesday, and though a number of tradersdid put in brief appearances at the office Thursday, they didlittle more than check what futures was doing in an abbreviatedtrading session. “We had to come in for the first half of the dayor else count it as a whole vacation day,” one marketer commented.

A systemwide entitlement against overtakes that began Dec. 19 onNorthwest remained in effect going into the holiday weekend.Northwest said Wednesday it would continue to operate under a Stage1 entitlement at 3% because it had not seen sufficient improvementin system conditions. However, as of Wednesday the entitlement waslifted on points south of Kemmerer (WY) Station.

With a little holiday cheer, the American Gas Association handedout an extremely optimistic 1999 gas consumption forecast last weekas a gift to those whose spirits may be down with gas demand thisChristmas season. The association told those attending its year-endreview conference in Washington, D.C. to expect 5% growth inconsumption in 1999, led by a 13% increase in the residentialsector and a 6.8% jump in the commercial sector. This rosy glow,however, would be fueled by normal weather, something that’s beenin short supply over the past year. Given above normal wintertemperatures next year (10% fewer heating degree days) and severalother negative factors such as $10/bbl oil prices, AGA expects an0.4% drop in gas demand.

Producers must have thought the Grinch was stealing Christmasearly when they saw the abyss-like depths to which December swingprices were sinking Monday. “I’ve never seen it [the spot market]dump so hard in my life!” exclaimed a Midcontinent trader.

It looks like bears are roaming the market woods for the holidayseason, said a producer noting new softness in both futures andcash prices Friday. No nay-sayers to her assessment could be foundas sources agreed that weather and storage fundamentals continue tolook weak for the foreseeable future, barring a surprise blizzardor two. A marketer said he “wouldn’t be surprised if we end up withDecember indexes looking a lot like November’s.”

The futures market continued its rally on Friday, fed on asteady diet of short-covering and local buying ahead of the holidayweekend. Early gains posted by the October contract led to a quickspike to the $1.86 level before light position squaring trimmedadvances before the closing bell. That left the prompt contract upa respectable 7.1 cents to settle at $1.783. October was not alone,November and December each more than matched October’s gains,increasing 7.6 cents and 7.3 cents, respectively.

Activity at the New York Mercantile Exchange resumed after thelong holiday weekend Monday, and apparently traders hit the marketwith one primary objective in mind: to sell. The spot Augustcontract opened at what turned out to be its daily high of $2.43,and ended up falling 7.4 cents to settle the day at $2.365. Anestimated 32,810 total contracts changed hands.