futures

The futures market began the week Tuesday in the same fashion itclosed out last week – probing higher amid a technical bouncesupported by continued apprehension about tropical storm activity.That enabled the October contract to post a gain for its third dayin a row by advancing 9.1 cents to $1.874.

Most cash points tended to ignore Thursday’s rebound on thefutures screen and instead focused on weak fundamentals. Many GulfCoast and Midcontinent pipes were leveling off from Wednesday’sprecipitous plunges, although several in the Gulf fell a few morecents. The losers included points in South and East Texas despite aferocious heat wave straining the state’s electric utilities.

The futures market traded lower for most of the day Thursdaybefore cratering in the last 10 minutes of the trading session,leaving the market at its lowest level in years. The Septembercontract plumbed the lowest of any of the contracts, printing lowsat $1.61 just after 3:00 EST. However, an average of all tradesduring the last 30 minutes produced a final settlement of $1.672, a9-cent loss for the day and 27.5 for the week.

The futures market again came under heavy selling pressure onWednesday as new bearish technical factors added to the alreadynegative fundamental outlook. The September contract never had achance, managing to post a high yesterday that matched Tuesday’slow, while slipping 6.6 cents to settle at $1.762. Estimated volumesubstantiated the price move, with a whopping 93,150 contractschanging hands.

The futures market shrugged off another bearish AGA storagereport and quietly traded higher at Nymex Thursday. After testingsupport in the $1.88-89 span early, the September contractrebounded to the mid-$1.90s where it remained in afternoon trade.The prompt month settled at $1.953, up 3.6 cents on the day.

Usually when sources refer to “following the screen,” it meansfutures trading influencing cash prices up or down in the samedirection. Thursday it was a case of cash following the screennowhere. Lack of movement in Nymex’s September contract wasreplicated by general flatness for physical gas.

Lacking much else in motivational factors beyond Tuesday’sfutures dive, cash prices softened Wednesday as expected.Across-the-board decreases ranged from barely a penny to as much asa dime. A Midcontinent marketer was surprised the drops weren’t anygreater than 2-5 cents in her region.

As a Daily GPI source had predicted Monday, that day’s futuresrun-up provided enough momentum to keep most cash market points onthe rise Tuesday. But don’t bet the farm on cash firmness tocontinue today, not after the screen’s headlong plunge Tuesday,several traders said. Despite heat waves remaining in the West andSouth, there is not enough in the way of fundamentals to counterthe screen’s negative influence, they said.

Lacking any impetus from fundamentals or a sedate futuresscreen, the vast majority of points settled down for a level ridein a quiet market Wednesday. The few increases of any size occurredin the Rockies and California and were attributed to supplyconstraints and continuing heavy air conditioning load.