futures

Profit Taking Awards Bears Third Straight Losing Session

For the second day in a row, the natural gas futures market opened higher but fell lower late in the session as traders elected to take profits on the hunch that all the bullish news available has already been factored into prices. By virtue of losses Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, the November contract becomes the first prompt month since September to notch a string of three down days. It closed at $4.11, down 4.7 cents for the session and a whopping 31 cents beneath Monday’s 18-month high at $4.42.

October 23, 2002

Industry Briefs

Platts Global Energy said it has received a subpoena from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for documents, employee information, policies and customer lists for price reports it publishes in its energy publications. The subpoena is part of a broad investigation of energy trading practices the CFTC is conducting, that was sparked by disclosures about Enron. A number of energy companies already have provided information to the CFTC. Two companies, Dynegy and AEP have admitted they provided false data to some price reporting publications. The companies have not publicly identified the false reports by time or location, nor is there any information as to whether the false reports were used by the publications, which have screening methods to eliminate suspect information. The subpoena seeks a list of current and former Platts employees “responsible for gathering, editing, verifying and publishing the information” and policies and training manuals for new price reporters. It also demands notes and other records of third-party services used in price gathering, and any information that “indicates any person’s knowledge of false, inaccurate or otherwise incorrect pricing and volume information,” Platts said.

October 14, 2002

Futures Rebound on Short- and Long-Term Supply Concerns

After watching prices bubble higher during the overnight Access trading session, natural gas bulls were treated to a gap higher opening Tuesday morning, as concerns over storm curtailments lingered. However, once the follow-through buying had run its course and resistance in the $3.88-90 area had held, prices shuffled lower in the afternoon. The November contract finished at $3.862, up 12.2 cents on the day, but down 2.8 cents from its high for the session.

October 9, 2002

Futures Drop a Cool Dime on Mild Weather Forecasts

Following an impressive eight-day, 60-cent rally, natural gas prices dipped Tuesday as traders grappled with the first bearish weather forecast in more than a month. The September contract closed at $3.166, down 10.1 cents on the day and just 0.6 cents above its low for the session. Estimated volume was heavy, with 109,501 contracts changing hands.

August 21, 2002

Most of West Misses Out on Weekend Rally

As NGI sources had expected, Thursday’s rise of about a dime in natural gas futures proved sufficient to outweigh moderating weather and the usual demand slump of a weekend period, producing moderate price gains at most eastern points Friday. In the West, however, Waha and PG&E-related points were the only ones to join the overall firmness. Most of the West ranged from flat to down about a nickel, although San Juan-Bondad recorded a whopping 36 cent plunge. Scattered eastern points were flat, but the majority rose by about a nickel to 15 cents.

July 22, 2002

Amid Technical and Fundamental Uncertainty, Futures Sit at Pivotal Point

With few fresh fundamental factors in which to sink their teeth, natural gas traders battled back and forth Friday, producing a wide 15-cent trading range. But despite the spirited session, the August contract finished with an unremarkable 0.1-cent decline and $2.933 settle, leaving plenty of questions still to be answered when trading resumes Monday. At 93,495, estimated volume was moderate to heavy for a Friday in July.

July 22, 2002

Most of West Misses Out on Weekend Rally

As NGI sources had expected, Thursday’s rise of about a dime in natural gas futures proved sufficient to outweigh moderating weather and the usual demand slump of a weekend period, producing moderate price gains at most eastern points Friday. In the West, however, Waha and PG&E-related points were the only ones to join the overall firmness. Most of the West ranged from flat to down about a nickel, although San Juan-Bondad recorded a whopping 36 cent plunge. Scattered eastern points were flat, but the majority rose by about a nickel to 15 cents.

July 22, 2002

Amid Technical and Fundamental Uncertainty, Futures Sit at Pivotal Point

With few fresh fundamental factors in which to sink their teeth, natural gas traders battled back and forth Friday, producing a wide 15-cent trading range. But despite the spirited session, the August contract finished with an unremarkable 0.1-cent decline and $2.933 settle, leaving plenty of questions still to be answered when trading resumes Monday. At 93,495, estimated volume was moderate to heavy for a Friday in July.

July 22, 2002

Analysts Up Gas Price Forecasts, Assume Even More Bullish Tone

Based on the recent resurgence in the U.S. economy and the technical gas futures rally sparked in part by a surge in oil prices, Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) analyst Robert Morris has raised his natural gas price forecast for 2002 and 2003, joining the ranks of other investment analysts. Earlier last week, Raymond James & Associates analyst Wayne Andrews cited stronger supply-driven fundamentals as a reason for his more bullish near-term gas outlook for higher prices during the second and third quarters.

April 8, 2002