Fundamentals

With no sign of bullish fundamentals anywhere to be found, October natural gas futures pushed lower again Friday to close at $4.627, down 15.4 cents on the day and 35.5 cents lower for the week.

Most of the cash market was falling again Wednesday as weather and storage fundamentals remained bearish. However, several western points (primarily in the Rockies) were flat to a little more than a quarter higher. The majority of losses ranged from about a nickel to 30 cents or so.

The cash market finally bowed — but not totally — to the reality of weak weather fundamentals and the steadily diminishing possibility of Tropical Storm Florence even reaching North America, much less the Gulf of Mexico. Although a majority of points recorded moderate losses Thursday, there were still quite a few that were flat to a dime higher.

Natural gas futures trading on Wednesday mimicked Tuesday’s lackluster performance. Bulls were wary of bidding the market up in the face of bearish fundamentals, while the bears weren’t ready to risk testing the lower $5 level with winter just a few short months away.

Despite weather fundamentals remaining weak for the most part, cash prices were able to ride the screen’s 16.2-cent gain Tuesday and modest further futures strength the next morning to post gains across the board Wednesday.

After absorbing the inconsequential natural gas storage report for the week ended Aug. 25, October natural gas futures traders, staring at nothing but bearish fundamentals, pushed the market lower Thursday, briefly plunging the prompt-month below the psychological $6 price level. October natural gas ended up closing out the day at $6.048, down 24.2 cents.

Flat quotes for Questar made it the only point failing to bow to weak fundamentals and five straight prior trading days of falling futures Thursday. The rest of the cash market saw price drops ranging from a little less than a nickel to about 55 cents.

The weather fundamentals didn’t seem to be there, and the screen had extended a three-day slide with a drop of 35.6 cents the day before (adding a loss of another nickel Wednesday). But a mixed cash market showed a moderate bias to the upside Wednesday.

Following a down day Monday, September natural gas futures shot higher Tuesday morning despite bearish fundamentals, which left some market participants scratching their heads. Despite moderating temperatures nationwide and nearly no activity in the tropics, the prompt month reached a morning high of $7.24 before easing off in the afternoon to close at $7.158, up 25.1 cents on the day.