Fundamentals

Stemming a three-day, 42.6-cent price slide, natural gas futures turned modestly higher Friday as traders covered shorts ahead of the holiday weekend. There also was the outside chance that tropical activity in the Atlantic and the Caribbean could present a threat to gas production in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The October contract gained 4.6 cents to close at $3.296. By comparison, the gains in the winter strip were larger, led by the January contract, which climbed 8.6 cents to finish back above the $4.00 mark at $4.029. At 50,980, estimated volume in the holiday-abbreviated session was weak.

Amid muddled fundamentals and a rapidly improving technical situation, natural gas futures reversed direction Wednesday as local traders used Tuesday’s retracement as a springboard to new eight-week highs. A 10.8-cent gain in the September contract was trumped by an 11.3-cent rise in the October contract. The two months, which constitute the end of the seven-month summer strip and storage injection season, finished at $3.274 and $3.339 respectively. The only non-bullish factor Wednesday was estimated volume, which at 95,733 was a little on the low side.

Despite an early dip and a temperature reprieve forecasted by the National Weather Service (NWS), natural gas futures stayed hot Monday, as traders continued to cover shorts following last week’s 14% rally. Saving their best for last, bulls were most active at the close Monday, as they pushed the September contract an additional 4% higher on the day to $3.267, a 11.8-cent gain for the session. Estimated volume was heavy with 105,487 contracts changing hands.

The cash market largely ignored weakening weather fundamentals Friday and sent prices higher at most points. Only plunges in the Rockies and at Transco Zone 6-New York City ran contrary to the overall firmness.

A veteran analyst of natural gas fundamentals sees a very tight balance between supply and demand with prices rising to well over $4.00 by February.

With little in the way of fresh fundamentals or technicals in which to sink their teeth, bulls and bears did not stray too far from home Friday, as neither was willing to attempt a move ahead of the weekend. After opening at $2.14, the March contract shuffled sideways for four-and-a-half hours before closing even with Thursday’s settle at $2.138. At 53,618, estimated volume on Friday was extremely light.

While the cash market seemed able to ignore Tuesday the fact that serious winter weather was starting to spread in most market areas outside the Southeast, it apparently was taking full cognizance of the situation Wednesday. The result was Tuesday’s mild softness yielding to Wednesday gains that ranged from a nickel to 16 cents but were mostly around a dime.

Amid a heavy round of market-on-close commercial selling, natural gas futures dropped perilously close to new 34-month prompt-month lows yesterday as traders — armed with the knowledge that temperatures are well-above normal across much of the East — gained confidence that there would not be a short-covering rally until after the February contract goes off the board Tuesday. With that, February completed its penultimate trading session at $1.908, down 12.9 cents for the session.

After failing to sustain a move above Wednesday’s highs, natural gas futures tumbled lower into the close yesterday as traders took another crack at the psychologically important $2.00 mark. The February contract finished at $2.048, down 2.8 cents for the session and just above its freshly-etched low at $2.025. There was some bullish encouragement, however, from the March and April contracts, which managed to buck the trend and post modest gains for the day.