Fresh

Despite having its plate full with fresh natural gas storage data and the upgrading of Adrian to a Category One Hurricane in the Pacific, June natural gas had a mostly uneventful trading day Thursday.

After soaring to new 2005 highs following the release of fresh storage data (95 Bcf withdrawal) on Thursday, the natural gas futures market chopped lower late in the session to end the day on a negative note. At $7.238, the April contract finished the session more than 14 cents below its $7.38 top but still up 4.6 cents on the day. Looking ahead, market watchers wonder whether the recent gains in both natural gas and crude futures can be sustained in the short to medium term.

With the five-day-old bearish storage report still fresh in traders’ minds, March natural gas futures on Monday — aided by weak petroleum futures activity — continued to explore lower in search of support, seesawing on the psychological $6 level on numerous occasions during the session before finally settling below it.

Despite fresh forecasts suggesting this summer could be a hot one, the natural gas futures market turned lower Friday as traders took profits after failing to break above stubborn overhead resistance.

With traders unwilling to bet too heavily ahead of the release of fresh inventory data Thursday, the natural gas futures market continued its sideways price action Wednesday. By virtue of the modest mid-morning sell-off, bears were able to claim the day as a victory, with April prices slipping 4.1 cents to close at $5.397.

With fresh forecasts and other signs hinting at a potential early start of heating season, gas buyers were spurred to keep pushing their storage injection schedules and to acquire supplies for immediate burns in the northern U.S. and Canada, where chilly start-of-fall temperatures have more furnaces getting turned on as the week progresses. The result Tuesday was further price increases, nearly all of them in double digits. The upticks ranged from a little under a dime to nearly 30 cents; most of those over 20 cents occurred at Rockies/San Juan/Pacific Northwest points.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental information, natural gas futures traders quietly took profits Friday in sparse pre-weekend trading. In contrast to the previous Friday’s frenzied long liquidation, the selling late last week was light, evidence that traders like the market’s chances of climbing higher when trading resumes this week. The October contract finished at $4.771, down 3.9 cents for the day, but up 4 cents for the week. At 39,107, estimated volume was extremely light.

After checking lower in the moments following the 10:30 a.m. ET release of fresh storage data (70 Bcf injection), the natural gas futures market worked its way higher late Thursday morning and afternoon as buyers sided with the seasonal tendency for prices to climb during the month of September. As it turns out, that buying was enough to withstand two distinct selling surges Thursday morning as technical traders attempted to induce a move below key support levels at $4.55 and $4.44. October finished the session at $4.81, up 11.6 cents for the session.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental or technical developments Friday, the natural gas futures market was flat as a pancake as traders elected to play it safe ahead of the weekend. With that the August contract completed a very negative week with a modest 2.5-cent decline and $4.706 settlement. August options expire Monday and August futures closeout on Tuesday.