Fears

Future shippers on the new Chicago-to-Dawn Vector Pipeline hadtheir fears confirmed last Tuesday when pipeline officialsannounced that the start-up date for the project, which wasscheduled for Nov. 1 to coincide with the start-up of thelong-awaited Alliance Pipeline, would be delayed a month until Dec.1.

Future shippers on the new Chicago-to-Dawn Vector Pipeline hadtheir fears confirmed Tuesday when pipeline officials announcedthat the start-up date for the project, which was scheduled forNov. 1 to coincide with the start-up of the long-awaited AlliancePipeline, would be delayed until Dec. 1.

Buoyed by renewed storm fears and bargain buying followingThursday’s 6% price slide, natural gas futures were higher Friday,leaving traders to speculate as to whether the downward pricecorrection is complete. November received the largest boost of anymonth, recovering 6.2 cents to close at $5.186. The winter strip,followed suit, gaining a nickel to close at $5.105.

The natural gas industry should be prepared to face customerrevolts and attempts at price caps, similar to those witnessed thissummer in San Diego if it’s a cold winter and prices continue tohit new highs. That was the warning from government and industryrepresentatives at the crisis conference held by the Interstate Oil& Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) yesterday.

Slightly cooler temperatures in many major eastern marketregions dropped cooling demand a few notches yesterday, but alleyes quickly turned to the northwestern Caribbean Sea whereTropical Depression 11 appeared poised for a weekend visit to theGulf of Mexico.

Choppy trading continued in the natural gas pit yesterday astraders deposited prices lower, after failing to break throughoverhead resistance on the open. However, after watching pricesrumble mostly sideways for the better part of the afternoon, bullswere once again on the offensive Tuesday evening in reaction toreports that a storm was forming in the western Caribbean Sea.

The price roller coaster continued in the natural gas pit at theNew York Mercantile Exchange Thursday as traders went through themotions of checking the latest hurricane forecast and then tradedaccordingly. Yesterday that translated into selling, by trade andlocals alike, as they reduced their long exposure on the news thatDebby had weakened into a tropical wave.

After putting in a price bottom at the end of July, natural gasfutures have moved steadily higher throughout the month of Augustas traders priced a hurricane premium into the market. Theirconcern is that a supply disruption in a market that already sportsa tight supply-demand equilibrium could mean serious problemsheading into the crucial winter demand months.

Despite concerns to the contrary, there will be enough supply ofnatural gas to meet the demands of customers during the next winterheating season, and the current stratospheric gas prices aren’tgoing to become a “permanent” fixture in the market, according tothe American Gas Association, which represents gas utilities, andthe Natural Gas Supply Association, which represents majorproducers.