Fails

Despite clear evidence of western spot power and gas market manipulation, FERC made no decision last week on whether billions of dollars in long-term western wholesale power contracts negotiated in 2000 and early 2001 should be scrapped or altered. The Commission vaguely indicated that the contracts would be upheld and sent back to a settlement judge, and that suggestion angered western senators, who said the Commission is not meeting its responsibility under the Federal Power Act.

In a surprising show of strength considering the weak underlying cash prices and a bearish storage report (7 Bcf injection) announced Thursday morning, natural gas futures rallied back to the mid-$5.20s late Thursday morning. However, buying dried up for the expiring April contract and sellers were waiting to push it lower at the closing bell. At $5.146, April completed its tenure as prompt month up 4.9 cents on the day, but down 30% since becoming prompt month. The new prompt month, May, surged 9.3 cents to close at $5.24.

FERC made no decision Wednesday on whether billions of dollars in long-term western wholesale power contracts negotiated in 2000 and early 2001 should be scrapped or altered because of market manipulation in the short-term or spot market. The Commission vaguely indicated that the contracts should be sent back to a settlement judge.

Since becoming the prompt contract a month ago the February natural gas futures contract has exhibited a strong tendency to rebound following each and every price dip. That was again perfectly demonstrated Tuesday on the month’s penultimate trading day as market-on-close buying lifted the contract off its late afternoon low at $5.33. February closed at $5.444, up 4.8 cents for the session and 11.4 cents off its low notched just 15 minutes earlier.

After dropping a dime in a knee-jerk reaction to slightly bearish storage data (42 Bcf injection) released at 10:30 a.m. EDT, natural gas futures chopped sideways for the rest of the session Thursday as traders groped for fair value in a market that has witnessed a 58-cent trading range since Oct. 1. As it turned out, nothing was settled, with about half the traders, brokers and analysts surveyed by NGI yesterday expecting higher prices Friday and half looking for more weakness. The November contract closed at $3.828, down 9 cents for the session and just above support at $3.795.

Amid three distinct selling surges, natural gas futures returned to pre-hurricane (Isidore and Lili) levels Thursday as traders grappled with a one-two combination of bearish news. The first blow came before the open when traders learned that Hurricane Lili had weakened prior to landfall. Still reeling from that, traders were again stymied upon learning that a greater-than-expected 47 Bcf was injected into storage last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Then after holding support at $3.78 for much of the afternoon, the November contract broke lower in the final 30 minutes of trading. It closed at $3.724, down 43.6 cents for the session and more than 50 cents beneath its $4.25 peak notched during the height of the hurricane hype Tuesday.

The choice over whether to buy or sell natural gas futures was an easy one to make Wednesday morning. Confronted with a tropical storm that had not strengthened as expected overnight, traders elected to sell the market with a vengeance, pushing the October contract to its lowest level since last Tuesday. Creating a whopping 13-cent gap on the daily bar chart, the October contract started its penultimate trading session by opening well into negative territory. After stabilizing briefly during the late morning, the prompt month was hit with another wave of selling in the afternoon. It finished at $3.494, down 24.8 cents for the day.

Not even a burst of activity in what has so far been a quiet 2002 Atlantic hurricane season was able to support prices Monday. Except for mild upticks in California and the holiday-limited intra-Alberta market, along with a smidgen of flatness in the Northeast, most points fell between about a nickel and 30 cents. The larger declines tended to cluster in the Rockies, but Transco Zone 6-New York City continued to descend from last week’s stratospheric heights with a plunge of more than 40 cents to land it back in place with other Northeast quotes in the $3.20s.

Like a stunned boxer that twice tries but fails to lift himself off the mat, the natural gas futures market was unable to recover Thursday following the release of storage data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing a larger-than-expected 64 Bcf injection. After dropping a cool 10 cents in 10 minutes following the report, the August contract looked like it might rebound before lunchtime. However, that rally and a similar one in the early afternoon fizzled, leaving prices to sift downward and close just off their lows. At $2.902, the August contract finished with a 14-cent decline for the session.