Factors

Summer weather — and the U.S. economy — may be the most important factors affecting the natural gas market over the coming six months, according to energy analysts.

The cash market had an abundance of supportive factors on which to base gains across the board Thursday: cold weather returning to northern market areas and continuing in the Rockies; developing cooling load from 80s highs in much of the South and Southwest; the previous day’s 35.9-cent spike by May futures; and Gulf Coast supply tightness as a result of the Independence Hub outage (see Daily GPI, April 10).

Cash traders were hit with a barrage of bearish factors Friday as the weekend’s lack of gas demand combined with moderating temperatures and the upcoming Christmas holiday combined to push prices at points across the country lower.

The outlook for global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets and supply is “very uncertain” due to a number of factors, a natural gas economics expert told attendees at a Houston conference last week.

The outlook for global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets and supply is “very uncertain” due to a number of factors, a natural gas economics expert told attendees at a Houston conference Wednesday.

Conflicting influences led to mixed prices Friday that were mostly higher in the East and mostly lower in the West. The negative factors of a prior-day drop of nearly half a dollar in February futures, moderate Saturday-Sunday weather in much of the East and the extra loss of industrial load over a holiday weekend were offset to a great extent by forecasts of severe cold in many areas starting early this week and renewed Nymex support Friday.

A barely higher Cheyenne Hub in the Rockies was the only point that avoided falling prices Wednesday. The factors that have caused softness in post-Christmas trading at nearly all points were unchanged — light heating load due to unseasonably moderate weather for late December, prior-day futures weakness and bearish attitudes about abundant storage.

Natural gas storage levels are high and gas prices are lower, but those factors won’t delay domestic drilling plans on- or offshore, energy executives said Tuesday at the UBS Global Oil & Gas Conference in Austin, TX.

Following two days of mostly higher quotes, the cash market acknowledged the continuing bearish nature of weather, screen and storage factors — supplemented by the extra decline of industrial load associated with a long holiday weekend — by falling from a couple of pennies to around 40 cents at a solid majority of points Friday. Westcoast Station 2 was a special case in plunging about C80 cents.