Expectations

President Obama’s speech to the nation’s top business leaders Wednesday fell short of expectations that it would unveil incentives to encourage coal-burning power generation facilities to switch to natural gas.

Traders on Wednesday appeared to be tempering their expectations of cold weather being able to prompt market gains as the January contract posted a decline for the third straight day. The prompt-month contract recorded a low of $4.511 in afternoon trading before closing the day at $4.530, down 23.2 cents.

With a lack of significant cold around the country and expectations of a healthy storage injection report Thursday, December natural gas futures on Wednesday continued to probe lower price levels. The prompt-month contract reached a low of $4.719 before closing the regular session at $4.725, down 19.7 cents from Tuesday’s close.

A well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas drilled by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. flowed at an initial production rate of 11.3 MMcfe/d, the producer said Monday.

Expectations of a warm-up early next week, combined with some moving and shaking by one of the major natural gas funds, helped November natural gas futures on Wednesday to continue testing downside support. The prompt-month contract recorded a low of $4.399 before closing the regular session at $4.436, down 15.2 cents from Tuesday.

July natural gas futures gained ground Thursday in spite of a government inventory report showing injections above trader expectations and inventories well above historical norms. A strong performance by July crude oil, which more than made up for Wednesday’s $2.43/bbl drubbing, also helped the bullish cause.

Expectations of rising temperatures in the western half of the South, Midcontinent and Rockies combined with the previous day’s 8.9-cent drop by February futures to push prices lower in most of the cash market Wednesday. At least one source, however, thought there would be enough returning cold weather in the eastern U.S. and Canada by Friday to generate an overall rally Thursday.

Citing expectations of a return to moderate temperatures in its market area, Transco said it will end Tuesday the Imbalance OFO that was implemented last Friday. Transco also said the restriction on nominating due-shipper imbalance makeups will be lifted Tuesday, but other scheduling restrictions currently in place will continue. However, the pipeline added that a return to below-average temperatures in the market area is expected Thursday, and it will put another systemwide Imbalance OFO into effect that day. See the bulletin board for OFO details.

Expectations of a troubled economy in 2009 shouldn’t weigh too heavily on the minds of gas producers if analysts at Barclays Capital are correct in their demand projections. Demand will be weak to be sure, but not as weak as some might fear, they say.