Expectations

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Inc. initiated coverage ofHS Resources with a “buy” rating and a 12-month price target of $30based on expectations for strong summer gas prices. In a 16-pageresearch report, FBR senior research analyst David Khani identifiedHS as the dominant oil and gas producer in the Denver-Julesberg(D-J) Basin.

As traders had expected, prices used Thursday afternoon’s andFriday morning’s futures strength as a springboard to achieveincreases that were mostly between a nickel and a dime Friday.

Despite continued above-normal temperatures across much of theU.S., natural gas futures rumbled higher yesterday as local tradersbid up prices in an attempt to set off buy stops positioned abovethe market. However, by Monday afternoon it was apparent they wereonly partially successful, and after notching a $2.255 high theFebruary contract eased lower to close at $2.216, a 4.3-centadvance for the session. Estimated volume was low with 48,189contracts changing hands.

While yesterday’s price weakness did not surprise many traders,the size of some of the declines exceeded expectations. Near recordhigh temperatures caused major drops in the Midcontinent, andforecasts of hot weather combined with a dropping futures screen toweaken the Northeast, Gulf Coast and western markets.

When futures took a steep dive after cash trading had beencompleted Thursday, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to predictthat cash prices would be headed into the dumpster Friday. Sureenough, quotes for the weekend were way down. Most of the declineswere between 10 and 25 cents, but some in Appalachia and theNortheast reached the 40-50 cents range. The smaller drops tendedto be concentrated at western points.

Columbia Energy Group beat analysts expectations with a 15% jump($3.3 million or five cents per share) in net income during thesecond quarter to $26.1 million, or 32 cents per share. It alsoupped the ante yesterday in its effort to fend off NiSource’s $5.7billion hostile takeover offer by adding $400 million to its stockrepurchase program, which now totals $420 million.

Enron Corp. turned in second quarter results that beat WallStreet expectations. Also yesterday, Enron Energy Services (EES)announced its biggest energy outsourcing deal yet, and the parentcompany touted its nascent communications business to analysts,saying Communications, which plans to enter bandwidth trading, nowwill be classified as a core business. While the company’s energyservices business continued to lose money, it still appears to beon track to at least break even in the fourth quarter, the companyand analysts said.

Cash prices proved remarkably resistant Friday to the softnessthat usually accompanies lowered demand for a weekend period. TheGulf Coast and Northeast citygates were essentially flat, whilemost of the small declines were concentrated in the West andMidcontinent. Sources attributed the relatively firm pricing tomodest support from a slightly higher futures screen, along withtrader anticipation of a return to hotter weather morecharacteristic of June than last week’s below-normal thermometerreadings throughout much of the East.

The North American natural gas industry can deliver 30 Tcf ofgas annually by 2010, but it will take over $50 billion to do it,according to Coastal Chairman David Arledge.