Every

Swing trading for the last day of November saw prices rising bydouble-digit amounts at nearly every point Monday except in theRockies. The fact that post-holiday temperatures had grownconsiderably colder in the East were a partial factor in theincreases; however, sources said it were the avoidance of payingeven higher November cash-out prices to the pipelines that wasprimarily behind the incremental push higher.

As expected, weekend prices took a steep plunge in Friday’strading as almost every point fell by around 20 cents or more. Thebiggest drops of almost 40 cents occurred at the SouthernCalifornia border and PG&E citygate, where both majordistributors had widely anticipated high-inventory OFOs in placefor Saturday.

Cash prices built further Tuesday on their early-week gains invirtually every market except Northern California. Factors behindthe firmness remained much the same as on Monday: a moderate screenincrease, a “stash it while you can” storage mentality and agradual warming trend in northern market areas. Price movementranged from flat on several Rockies pipes to about a nickel higherat many Gulf Coast and Midcontinent points.

The April aftermarket was off to a very strong beginning inswing deals done Wednesday. Virtually every point was trading abovebidweek levels and in some cases much higher. For example, a buyerwho paid in the mid $1.70s for April baseload at the SouthernCalifornia border reported a $1.90-95 swing range. Most sourcesagreed that the incremental price strength derived almost entirelyfrom “following the screen” upward.

With weather forecasts producing bearish news at every turn andnational storage reserves looming ever larger, Raymond James &ampAssociates recently published a report projecting spot wellhead gasprices will drop below the $1.50/Mcf level before the beginning ofsummer. The study, however, also warns of a gas “price shock” inearly 2000, when gas shortages run rampant and production is unableto keep up because of sharp declines in exploration and productionspending. It seems the industry is in store for a spot marketroller coaster ride.

With weather forecasts producing bearish news at every turn andthe national storage reserves looming ever larger, Raymond James& Associates recently published a report projecting spotwellhead gas prices to drop below the $1.50/Mcf level before thebeginning of summer. The study gives the correlation between gasprices and storage levels, the onslaught of gas production, and theeffects of a third warm winter as reasons for its forecast. Thestudy also warns of a gas “price shock” in early 2000, when gasshortages run rampant and production is unable to keep up.

The natural gas producing segment will lose $200 millionannually for every penny increase in transportation costs that’srealized from the lighter handed regulatory initiatives – such asnegotiated terms and conditions and capacity auctioning – proposedby FERC, an official with a leading independent producer groupprojected.

Information technology is transforming just about every aspectof the energy industry, even the Federal Energy RegulatoryCommission, speakers at an INGAA Foundation conference in Houstonnoted Thursday. Oliver G. “Rick” Richard, CEO of Columbia EnergyGroup, said soon “time margin” will become nearly as critical ayardstick as profit margin for measuring company performance.

So far cash prices are following the script surrounding theFourth of July holiday weekend. As virtually every trader hadexpected, the market fell hard Thursday. “There were just no buyersout there,” complained one marketer. It was a fairly quiet daysince some gas had already been committed for the weekend onWednesday or earlier, and many people were anxious to get it doneand clear out early for the holiday, said another source.