Dropped

Ending a seven-session price advance, natural gas futures dropped lower at the opening bell Monday as traders alleviated overbought conditions and cashed in on a portion of recent gains. After that initial wave of weakness, however, the market steadied itself, giving buyers the opportunity to chip away at the deficit for the remainder of the day.

Natural gas futures dropped to new nine-month lows Thursday morning on the news that a whopping 102 Bcf was added to underground storage facilities last week. After having teetering precariously above support at $4.55 both on Wednesday and then again on Thursday morning, the October contract was ushered lower in a wave of knee-jerk selling after the 10:30 a.m. EDT report.

Unlike Lehman Brothers, which dropped its natural gas pricing forecast into 2004 (see related story), Standard & Poor’s (S&P) analysts believe that North American natural gas prices may spike this winter if the exploration and production (E&P) industry does not increase its drilling activity.

Raymond James bumped down its natural gas price forecasts for the third and fourth quarter, and also dropped its gas price forecast for 2004 to $5.50 from $6.00/Mcf after analysts reviewed recent trends in U.S. fuel switching thresholds. Linking oil and gas pricing for the past several years, analysts said they now have enough data to more accurately predict how high prices have to go before “meaningful” fuel switching-related demand destruction begins to occur.

After trading in positive territory for most of the session, the natural gas futures market dropped lower in the final hour of open-outcry trading Monday on selling ahead of Thursday’s storage report. The October contract was the hardest hit, tumbling 11 cents to finish at $4.661.

Raymond James bumped down its natural gas price forecasts for the third and fourth quarter, and also dropped its gas price forecast for 2004 to $5.50 from $6.00/Mcf after analysts reviewed recent trends in U.S. fuel switching thresholds. Linking oil and gas pricing for the past several years, analysts said they now have enough data to more accurately predict how high prices have to go before “meaningful” fuel switching-related demand destruction begins to occur.

Natural gas futures dropped lower at the open Tuesday as traders returned from the holiday weekend to a less than supportive fundamental outlook. In addition to the milder temperatures expected in September, weather forecasters also played music to bears’ ears by predicting that Hurricane Fabian poses more of a threat to New England than to the Gulf Coast states. The October contract was hit heaviest by the selling, dropping 9.2 cents to close at $4.639. At 63,392, estimated volume was moderate.

Natural gas futures dropped lower Thursday morning as bears were rousted for the second week in a row by a larger-than-expected storage injection (57 Bcf). After falling a dime in the five minutes following the storage report, the market stabilized for the rest of the session. June futures closed at $5.267, down 11.8 cents for the day.

A new study released by the American Gas Association indicates that gas reserve levels remained flat or dropped slightly last year compared to the 183.5 Tcf recorded in 2001. Reserves rose in six out of the last eight years.