Downward

While a significant portion of the industry was busy extending the Independence Day holiday, August natural gas futures on Thursday quietly worked downward yet again, recording a low of $6.560 before closing out the day at $6.618, down 13.6 cents from Tuesday’s close.

With some of Friday’s downward momentum sliding over into the new week, July natural gas futures bounced between a $7.560 low and a $7.705 high before closing out Monday’s regular trading session at $7.608, down 5.5 cents from last week’s close on Friday. While the bears were still having their way, most industry veterans are expecting yet another rebound off support in keeping with the market’s routine of the last several months.

Keeping downward pressure on natural gas futures prices despite the burst of cold into eastern regions, traders on Friday pushed November natural gas lower for a third consecutive session, dropping the contract 80.7 cents, or 12.5%, over the last three days of the week. The prompt month closed 12.3 cents lower Friday to close out the week at $5.659, which is 76.8 cents lower than the previous week’s close.

Despite a continuing downward trend the past eight months, natural gas prices will be heading back up, and customers are urged to take advantage of various utility energy efficiency programs, Sempra Energy’s Southern California Gas Co. said in a prepared announcement for customers released Monday. Customers now “benefiting from significantly lower natural gas prices,” can save even more if they kick in some energy-savings programs, the nation’s largest gas utility said.

Maintaining the downward trend from last week, natural gas futures prices dipped below $6 on Monday in a move many traders did not expect just weeks ago. July natural gas, which expires Wednesday, ended up closing at $5.969, down 25.7 cents on the day.

Citing record storage inventory levels and cool weather in certain parts of the country, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downward its Henry Hub spot price forecast for the year in its Short-Term Energy Outlook to $7.74/Mcf from the $8.11/Mcf that was projected last month, and ratcheted down its average price forecast for 2007 to $8.81/Mcf from its May prediction of $9.17/Mcf. But an active hurricane season, as has been predicted for this year, could cause the spot price projections to sharply reverse direction in late summer, the EIA said.

Citing record storage inventory levels and cool weather in certain parts of the country, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downward its Henry Hub spot price forecast for the year in its Short-Term Energy Outlook to $7.74/Mcf from the $8.11/Mcf that was projected last month, and ratcheted down its average price forecast for 2007 to $8.81/Mcf from its May prediction of $8.39/Mcf. But an active hurricane season, as has been predicted for this year, could cause the spot price projections to sharply reverse direction in late summer, the EIA said.

The cash market clung to flat to slightly higher numbers at a few points Tuesday, but the predominant direction of price movement was downward. Although the weather picture continued to look fairly wintry through Wednesday and beyond for the Northeast, Midwest, Plains and to a lesser degree the upper West, storage use appeared to be offsetting demand for new production to a large degree.

Coming off of Tuesday’s 13.1-cent climb, April natural gas futures got back to the downward trend Wednesday as it plumbed new lows for the move. After carving out a new low at $6.450 in morning trade, the prompt month rebounded in the afternoon to settle at $6.648, down 3 cents on the day.