Downturn

Only sharply higher-than-expected production performance or a sharper-than-anticipated downturn in industrial activity this year will prevent continued pressure on natural gas spot prices in the $4-$5 range, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for April 2001.

Only sharply higher-than-expected production performance or a sharper-than-anticipated downturn in industrial activity this year will prevent continued pressure on natural gas spot prices in the $4-$5 range, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for April 2001.

In a reflection of Wednesday afternoon’s meager storagewithdrawal report and the accompanying screen downturn, most cashpoints fell between about a dime and 20 cents Thursday. The majorvariations from the overall market were Northern Californiaupticks, flat to barely lower numbers in the Rockies and San JuanBasin, and a Southern California border decline of nearly 40 cents.

As sources had predicted a day earlier, the downturn in cashprices got even steeper Thursday, primarily due to the big futuresdrop on the previous afternoon and what was considered by many tobe a rather bearish storage report. A gradual warming trend inseveral regions was not strong enough to prompt significant newcooling load for gas.

Except for continued rises at some Northeast citygates, most ofthe cash market was in rout mode Wednesday. Price decreases of adime or more-much more in a few cases-prevailed at nearly allpoints despite cold weather blanketing much of the U.S. from theRockies eastward. A falling screen and forecasts that some areaswill be warming up this weekend constituted the main cashdepressants, sources said. Despite what one trader called a “ratherhealthy” AGA figure of 116 Bcf withdrawn from storage last week,few saw much chance of a holiday weekend rebound.

Late-November swing prices got “crushed” Monday, burdened bothtechnically by a slumping futures screen and fundamentally by acontinuing surplus of unseasonably warm weather, a Texas-basedproducer lamented. Virtually all points dropped between a nickeland about 15 cents, with declines in the vicinity of a dime beingmost common.

Warm weather forecasts and the large separation between cash andfutures prices spoiled the nice rally futures traders had goinglate last week. Prices opened down a nickel, made slight gains andthen slid the rest of the day. After opening at $2.600, Decemberposted a mid-day high at $2.635 and then collapsed to a low of$2.520. It settled down 12.5 cents at $2.524. January lost 10.7cents to settle at $2.681, and February slipped 8.5 cents to endthe day at $2.640/MMBtu.

As many had expected, the cash market retreated slightlyThursday from the early May aftermarket peaks posted Wednesday. Thedecline was moderate with most points off anywhere from a penny ortwo to just over a nickel.

The rebound from Monday’s price downturn bounced high above therim Tuesday as many price points experienced gains well over anickel. The upticks were attributed to a rise in the futures marketlate Monday afternoon and early evening, and a growing inclinationto buy gas for storage now before prices rise further.