Declines

The combination of continued warm to hot forecasts in many areas and the return of industrial load from the greater declines of a low-demand holiday weekend generated strong price increases nearly across the board Tuesday. Generally hot weather is expected to continue at least into mid-July in much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

Prior-day futures strength, in which the July contract rose a stout 14.8 cents, was able to offset some forecast declines of cooling load in a couple of key market areas in keeping most points flat to slightly higher Wednesday.

Small declines were still in a modest majority Thursday in a market that saw no changes of more than a nickel or so either up or down at any location. The flat to slightly higher quotes were chiefly due to some growth of cooling demand in the Northeast and South along with the previous day’s rise of 3.4 cents by June futures.

Shale gas production in the Haynesville and Marcellus shales was the bright production star in February, while output in the traditional, maturer regions fell due to cold weather and maintenance/repairs, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly natural gas report.

As Thursday’s significant slowdown in price growth had indicated, last week’s bull market in cash was on its last legs. That was borne out by declines across the board Friday.

There were a few holdouts for higher prices on Wednesday, but the verdict was unanimous Thursday: declines across the board, including several multi-dollar plunges in the Northeast. As expected, this week’s burst of cold proved to be relatively brief. Warming trends will either be already under way or beginning Friday in most of the U.S., Eastern Canada and portions of Western Canada.

By 2030, natural gas will have become the second-largest global energy source — ahead of coal — aided by technologies that have unlocked enormous new supplies of gas from shale, tight formations and coalbed methane, ExxonMobil Corp. said Thursday.

Wednesday’s cash market was quite a bit weaker than Tuesday’s; triple-digit declines continued at several Northeast citygates, but they were joined this time with falling numbers almost everywhere else as end-of-the-year weather forecasts were getting considerably milder.

Shale gas resources — and growing output from shale oil — will offset declines in other U.S. supplies through 2035, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday.