Counting

Those in a counting their chickens mode relative to all theplanned new natural gas-fired generating capacity waiting in thewings, might want to consider a new analysis of just how efficientthose new plants will be. Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) ofArlington, VA reckons gas displacement by new more efficientgas-fired combined cycle units will total over 250 Bcf/year inTexas and over 100 Bcf/year in California from 2003-5. That’s notto say gas use will decline, because load growth will swallow upsome of those savings, but “the initial gas demand growth rate inthese key regions will be dampened.” The efficiency factor of theswitch to the latest turbines from older steam generation unitswill be most pronounced in those two states, but will have animpact in other areas as well. EVA’s report, “Outlook for Gas-FiredCapacity Additions,” points to 411 gas turbine projects, generating190,980 MW, which are expected to be completed, primarily betweennow and the end of 2003. Where the new units replace oil or coalgeneration, the switch will be a plus for natural gas, but incertain areas they will be replacing older gas hogs as well. EVA’sforecast is part of its “FUELCAST” study which addresses the longterm outlook for fuel and electricity markets.