Consumption

After having one of the more bullish gas price forecasts on Wall Street, Raymond James is changing its tune because there’s a good chance this winter will be one of the warmest in history. The firm said Monday it was lowering its Henry Hub price forecast for the first quarter to $2.30 from $2.75 and its forecast for the second quarter to $2.80 from $3.25. Its forecast for the year was dropped to $3.25 from $3.50, but the firm expects a strong recovery in the last two quarters of 2002.

After having one of the more bullish gas price forecasts on Wall Street, Raymond James is changing its tune because there’s a good chance this winter will be one of the warmest in history. The firm said Monday it was lowering its Henry Hub price forecast for the first quarter to $2.30 from $2.75 and its forecast for the second quarter to $2.80 from $3.25. Its forecast for the year was dropped to $3.25 from $3.50, but the firm expects a strong recovery in the last two quarters of 2002.

To prepare for the coming peak period of electricityconsumption, the New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) hasannounced it will monitor the state’s wholesale electric marketduring this first summer of its operation. The market now isadministered by the New York Independent System Operator (NY ISO),an independent non-profit organization that operates the state’sbulk power system and administers a competitive wholesale marketfor electricity.

Although the most recent estimates from the Energy InformationAdministration show gas consumption so far this winter to be up1.7%, or 1.28 Bcf/d, from the same period last winter (Novemberthrough February), the warming effects of El Nino continue to put adamper on gas and energy use. Since the beginning of November,population weighted heating degree days as calculated by theNational Weather Service have averaged about 10% fewer than normaland 7.6% fewer than last winter. But since Jan. 1, there have been20% fewer heating degree days than normal (1,438 HDD compared to1,801 HDDs) and 15% fewer than last year (1,683 HDDs). Heatingdegree days are calculated by measuring the differences between themean daily temperatures in 200 cities across the U.S. and 65degrees. Every region of the country has had fewer HHDs than normalduring the months of January and February.