Colder

March natural gas is set to open 13 cents higher Monday morning at $6.26 as traders ratchet up once again expectations of bone-chilling cold expected to hit the eastern three-quarters of the nation. Overnight oil markets were mixed.

February natural gas is set to open 4 cents higher Tuesday morning at $4.37 as traders assess oncoming cold in pivotal eastern markets and factor in a greater cold event than earlier expected. Overnight oil markets rose.

February natural gas is expected to open 6 cents higher Tuesday morning at $4.33 as weather forecasts notched a little colder by the end of the month. Overnight oil markets were mixed.

The cash market is displaying one of its quirkier characteristics. After rising strongly at all but one point Monday in anticipation of significantly colder temperatures approaching later in the week to much of the nation’s midsection, prices fell at a large majority of locations Tuesday, even as the heating load-boosting conditions began to arrive.

With some help from a 13.3-cent gain Friday in the prompt-month debut by April futures and colder forecasts for most territory east of the Mississippi River, prices firmed at nearly all points Monday. The restoration of industrial load following its usual weekend decline also contributed to the overall advance.

February natural gas futures staged a double-digit advance Wednesday as traders factored in incrementally colder forecasts in the 11- to 15-day period shown by popular weather models. At the close February futures rose 13.6 cents to $4.561 and March added 13.0 cents to $4.576. February crude oil fell 52 cents to $90.86/Bbl.

Tennessee said due to the anticipated return of colder weather to its market area, an OFO Action Alert will be implemented Friday for all Balancing Parties in downstream Zones 4, 5 and 6. They will be required to maintain an actual daily flow rate not exceeding 2% of scheduled quantities or 500 Dth, whichever is greater, for underdeliveries into the system and overtakes from the system.

Related to the colder-than-normal weather forecasted in its market area, Southern Star Central has posted a list of criteria (see the bulletin board) to which shippers must adhere to prevent the pipeline from issuing a systemwide or point- or shipper-specific OFO on short notice. The restrictions are expected to remain in effect until the start of Monday’s gas day.

Although there are quite a few parts of North America as cold as or colder than the Northeast, that region remained the only one where major heating load was having a substantive impact on prices. At nearly all other locations moderate softness was returning Tuesday.