Change

A ten-year snapshot of California’s natural gas future could re-touched or rendered out of focus in the months ahead, depending on more current residential/commercial demand data and whether or not the state’s sagging economy rebounds, according to one of the principal authors of the California Energy Commission’s (CEC’s) last staff gas assessment.

A ten-year snapshot of California’s natural gas future could re-touched or rendered out of focus in the months ahead, depending on more current residential/commercial demand data and whether or not the state’s sagging economy rebounds, according to one of the principal authors of the California Energy Commission’s (CEC’s) last staff gas assessment.

Dynegy reported a devastating third-quarter loss of $1.8 billion ($4.92/share) on Wednesday, warned of more writedowns in the fourth quarter, failed to offer any earnings guidance going forward, and finally stunned investors and analysts with no conference call to explain. To make matters even worse, the once-formidable alliance between Dynegy and ChevronTexaco appeared notably strained Wednesday, and negotiations were under way to terminate lucrative natural gas sales contracts now scheduled through August 2006.

If the assessment of a top industry analyst is correct, the structure of natural gas demand is undergoing a significant change which is likely to lead to increased weather-derived price volatility. Current price levels beg the question of how such elevated prices can be sustained given full storage supplies.

Change was in the air right from the outset of natural gas futures trading Wednesday. After opening higher in three out of the last four sessions, gas futures gapped lower at the opening bell Wednesday amid a concert of fund and local selling. However, when it became apparent that last week’s lows in the mid $2.70s were unobtainable, the market reversed its direction and climbed through several key levels of resistance in the last hour of trading. The August contract gained 15.3 cents to close at $3.042, its highest daily settle since July 3. At 151,295, volume was extremely heavy.

Change was in the air right from the outset of natural gas futures trading Wednesday. After opening higher in three out of the last four sessions, gas futures gapped lower at the opening bell Wednesday amid a concert of fund and local selling. However, when it became apparent that last week’s lows in the mid $2.70s were unobtainable, the market reversed its direction and climbed through several key levels of resistance in the last hour of trading. The August contract gained 15.3 cents to close at $3.042, its highest daily settle since July 3. At 151,295, volume was extremely heavy.

Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) said Wednesday it would change the structure of its stock research department to match the changes agreed to this week by Merrill Lynch & Co. in a $100 million settlement with the State of New York (see Daily GPI, May 23). In a memorandum to the SSB staff, CEO Michael A. Carpenter said a research review committee would be formed to oversee analysts’ recommendations, and said SSB would separate “the evaluation and compensation of equity research analysts from investment banking.”

Notes: Prices are in U.S. $/MMbtu for dry gas traded on Thursday May 23, 2002 for May delivery. Dashes in the change column indicate that insufficient information was collected to update the corresponding price. Comma delimited format (Premium Service)Tab delimited format (Premium Service) ©Copyright 2002 Intelligence Press, Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news report…

Guardian Pipeline has received FERC authorization last Wednesday for modification of its planned 142-mile, 750 MMcf/d mainline from Chicago north to allow an interconnection with the system of ANR Pipeline. The original plan had been for Guardian to connect with Alliance Pipeline.