A 15.5-cent pop higher in August gas futures Monday left some analysts and brokers considering the possibility that the market has found a summertime bottom due to recent higher temperatures, expectations of smaller storage injections and the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes. But most observers said they aren’t willing to write off the downtrend just yet. The August contract ended the day at $5.381.
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Storage Number Initiates Rally; Some Bears Unimpressed
Despite a third straight triple-digit weekly storage injection (114 Bcf), natural gas futures surged Thursday in three distinct waves of short-covering and speculative buying. When the dust had settled and the orders counted at Nymex, the numbers were impressive: July natural gas futures rose 36 cents to close at $5.941, just off its new one-week high of $5.95. In contrast to the first three trading days of this week, volume at Nymex was heavy Thursday, with an estimated 92,607 contracts changing hands.
Large Expected Refill; Bearish Technicals Spur 11-Cent Decline
You’ve got to like the “I will not be pushed” mentality exhibited by the market Wednesday. Less than 24 hours after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that the nation has a long-term gas supply problem, natural gas futures turned lower as traders liquidated longs in hopes of taking advantage of short-term bearish rewards.
Cautious Selling Squanders Bearish Opportunity; Futures Drop Only a Nickel
Following a four-day, 55-cent rally, the natural gas futures market cooled its jets Tuesday as traders considered the impact of what some suspect may be the largest storage injection in the nearly 10-year data history. However, after being given the green light by the lower opening, bears failed to capitalize on the opportunity, leaving only light profit-taking to push prices lower.
Failure to Reach New High Puts Monday’s Slim Futures Gain in Doubt
In what might have been the most bearish 0.4-cent increase in recent memory, natural gas futures inched higher Monday in a session marked by technical wrangling. Selling was seen at the open and again in the afternoon by funds and local traders. Most of the morning meanwhile, was the domain of bulls as short-covering lifted the market just shy of Thursday’s $5.83 high. The May contract finished at $5.713, up .04-cents for the session, but more than a dime off its $5.82 high for the day.
Without Fundamental or Technical Consensus, Futures Continue Choppy Trade
Rebounding from the 18-cent setback suffered by the market Friday, natural gas futures rebounded Monday as technical bullishness mixed with sympathy buying following the run-up in crude oil futures. In a mirror image to Friday’s session when prices shuffled lower throughout the day, Monday’s natural gas trading action saw its highest prices near the 2:30 p.m. EDT closing bell.
Bearish Technicals Versus Bullish Fundamentals: Call it a Tie
In what could be the most bullish 2-cent decline in recent memory, natural gas futures rebounded from early lows Wednesday as buyers continued to bet heavily on storage and weather holding the market up. After failing to extend down to a key downside objective at $6.70, the April contract rallied in the afternoon in light, pre-storage report short-covering. It closed at $7.021, down 2 cents on the day, but more than 27 cents above its morning low of $6.75.
After 94-Cent Fall, Futures Find Support in Weather and Storage Predictions
After gapping higher on Friday en route to a new contract high, the April natural gas futures contract gapped lower at the open Monday as traders alleviated overbought conditions and reacted to mixed weather forecasts. Selling was spread throughout the open-outcry session and was enough to thwart several attempts by bulls to prop up the market.
Explosion in NYC Harbor Rocks Nymex, Sparks 45-Cent Rally
Natural gas futures surged to new 24-month highs for the third straight session Friday as traders bid up prices in a feeding frenzy after the trading floor of Nymex shook for nearly 10 seconds that morning when a barge carrying gasoline exploded in New York Harbor.
Technically Speaking, Wednesday’s 19-Cent Retreat Was in the Cards
In a topsy-turvy trading session conspicuous only for its lack of bullish leadership, natural gas futures slipped lower Wednesday amid two waves of long liquidation. An early afternoon rally was about all the buyers could muster, and it was overshadowed by selling at the market’s open and again heading into its close. March finished at $5.785, down 19.2 cents for the session.