Bull

It was no secret what bull traders in the natural gas pit had todo yesterday in order to propel the market higher; the charts toldthe story.

This week’s bull market did come to an end Thursday as generallyexpected, but there was only a slight amount of price retrenchmentprimarily because of a show of strength by January futures. Eventhough cash traders were starting to discount the most recent coldweather forecasts, people in the Nymex pit apparently were stillgiving them credence. Most points were flat to 2-3 cents down, withseveral scattered ones achieving small gains. Only a few pointsfell by as much as a nickel or so.

Follow-through on the heels of Monday’s Nymex strength gave bulltraders an optimistic outlook early yesterday. However, theireuphoria was short-lived when a combination of fund and localselling pushed the market down near stubborn support at $2.205.June trimmed its losses into the close, finishing 6.6 cents lowerat $2.236.

It has been a good spring for bull traders at Nymex. SinceFebruary 26, the now-spot June contract has rallied nearly 70 centsto trade as high as $2.40 last week. But just as constructivetechnicals and low storage injection figures seemed to point tocontinued strength, the market spiraled lower Thursday and Friday.And while long liquidation spurred by the bearish one-two combo ofnuclear units coming back on line and moderating temperaturesacross the country were as good as reasons as any for the marketturning lower, traders remain divided as to the price directionheading into the summer. June finished the week mixed at $2.273, 2pennies above its close from the prior Friday, but 2.2 cents lowerfor the day.

Following three straight days of gains, bull traders had theirwinning streak cut late Monday after trading in positive territoryfor much of the session. And although many sources were expecting apullback following the near 20-cent price spike last week, somefelt the prompt contract’s inability to make a new high was anegative feature. The May contract finished down 0.8 cents at$2.03.

What a difference a week can make. Bull traders, nearly ready tothrow in the towel a week ago, have become “cautiously optimistic”higher prices are in their future. And they have good reason tofeel that way because the market entertained a flood of positivenews last week, which gave bulls and bears alike little choice butto bid the market higher. The April contract broke above the 40-daymoving average at $1.80 on Friday and was propelled 5 cents higherby speculative fund buying to finish the day up 9.8 cents at$1.853. Volume was a heavy 108,348. For the week, April gained 22.5cents.

Some would say that bull traders have endured a year’s worth ofbearish price news already this year as consistentlywarmer-than-normal weather forecasts each Monday have been followedby lower-than-expected storage withdrawal figures Wednesday. Thisone-two combo has done a number on natural gas prices, which haveplumbed to near-record lows amid almost non-existent volatility.But for at least a day, that was a distant memory Monday asshort-covering, egged on by a slew of fundamental and technicalfactors, buoyed the prompt-April contract 7.3 cents to $1.701.

It is said that first impressions are lasting ones, and bulltraders hope that adage applies also to futures contracts,following the market’s dramatic price rally as February’s debutedas the spot month yesterday. February opened Wednesday at Tuesday’shigh and moved 10.5 cents higher for the day to finish at $1.886.At 44,020, estimated volume was light considering the double digitprice move.

Expiration day at Nymex has been a bull-trader’s worst nightmarerecently because the last several contracts have been ushered offthe board amid a tempest of late selling activity. Septemberslipped 9 cents on its last trading day to cap off a 27.5 centprice decline for the week. Likewise, October and Novemberplummeted 15 cents and 13.6 cents to settle to either side of $2.00at final settlement. And although December’s fate is far fromsealed, Monday’s 6.6-cent losses and $2.097 penultimate settlementprompted traders to wonder if the market might be in for anotherround of expiration-day losses today.