Brothers

Lehman Brothers analysts lowered the full-year 2003-2004 natural gas price forecasts, but noted that prices will remain volatile “as they react to shifting demand patterns against the backdrop of a depleting production base.”

Lehman Brothers analysts lowered their full-year 2003-2004 natural gas price forecasts, but noted that prices will remain volatile “as they react to shifting demand patterns against the backdrop of a depleting production base.”

Unlike Lehman Brothers, which dropped its natural gas pricing forecast into 2004 (see related story), Standard & Poor’s (S&P) analysts believe that North American natural gas prices may spike this winter if the exploration and production (E&P) industry does not increase its drilling activity.

With about 80% of second quarter North American exploration and production (E&P) reported, Lehman Brothers analysts last week estimated a 3.1% decline from a year ago, less steep than originally forecast but still enough to support higher gas prices. Using its latest figures, analysts estimate full-year 2003 production volumes will fall 1-3% in the United States and 2-4% in Canada. The latter conflicts with a recent report that a recent drilling surge could lift Canadian production 1.5% (see separate story).

With about 80% of second quarter North American exploration and production (E&P), Lehman Brothers analysts now estimate a 3.1% decline from a year ago, less steep than originally forecast but still enough to support gas prices. With those numbers, analysts estimate full-year 2003 production volumes will fall 1-3% in the United States and 2-4% in Canada.

Despite reports that Canada’s natural gas production is continuing to decline, Lehman Brothers found there are still “attractive opportunities” that should help individual exploration and production (E&P) companies to grow.

A report issued by Lehman Brothers Tuesday predicted that U.S. natural gas prices of $3-4 will support significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity expansion in the next few years, with imports doubling this year over last to roughly 2% of total U.S. gas supply.

A report issued by Lehman Brothers Tuesday predicted that U.S. natural gas prices of $3-4 will support significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity expansion in the next few years, with imports doubling this year over last to roughly 2% of total U.S. gas supply.

With Canada’s natural gas production and storage levels at historical lows, Lehman Brothers analysts said Wednesday that Canadians likely will bid gas away from U.S. consumers and possibly storage, setting the stage for bullish gas prices.