Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Tuesday pledged energy prices would not rise as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and this week U.S. natural market futures provided an assist.

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On Wednesday, the April New York Mercantile Exchange gas futures contract lost ground for a third straight day and shed a tenth of a cent to close at $4.526/MMBtu. May dipped two-tenths of a cent to $4.561.

Analysts attributed the declines to forecasts for warmer weather over the next few weeks across the United States, which could result in the lightest U.S. natural gas demand since last fall.

Last week, analysts said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was overriding North American gas fundamentals, and futures jumped 12%. Despite the market’s apparent insulation, movement in...