Coming off heavy losses in recent sessions, natural gas futures were steady early Thursday as traders waited for the latest weekly government storage data to shed more light on the extent of coronavirus-related demand destruction. The May Nymex contract was up 0.7 cents to $1.605/MMBtu at around 8:30 a.m. ET.

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Estimates have been pointing to a much larger-than-average weekly storage injection from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET. Last week EIA reported a heftier-than-expected 38 Bcf injection that boosted stocks above 2 Tcf, which is nearly 900 Bcf above year-ago levels.

Perhaps because the EIA’s reported 38 Bcf build was well above consensus, estimates for Thursday’s have ranged widely. A Bloomberg survey showed projections ranging from 42 Bcf to 78 Bcf, with a median build of 67 Bcf. A Dow Jones poll showed estimates as low as 39 Bcf and produced an average 58 Bcf injection. NGI’s model pegged the build at 57 Bcf.

Last year, EIA recorded a 73 Bcf build for the similar week, and the five-year average is a build of 27 Bcf.

“It was warmer than normal over most of the country, especially the Southeast, while cooler than normal” for localized areas in California and North Dakota during this week’s report period, NatGasWeather said. “Our algorithm expects 70 Bcf-plus, to the bearish side, but very tricky accounting due to impacts from the Covid-19 lockdown on the commercial and industrial sectors.”

Genscape Inc. said its sampling points to a “rapid drop” in industrial demand for gas since the start of the month.

Looking at industrial meters related to metals, “current gas nominations are almost half of what they were during March,” Genscape analyst Dan Spangler said. “While some of that decrease is due to reduced heating demand, the current levels are far below the five-year minimum. Steel production accounts for the bulk of natural gas demand in the metals category, and it’s also taken the biggest hit to demand over the past month.

“For the week ending April 11, the gas nominations sample for metals was down over 30% compared to the same week last year. This aligns with the 33.6% decrease in domestic raw steel production that the American Iron and Steel Institute reported for the same periods. Since April 11 the sample has dropped another 10% and is at the lowest levels since 2009.”

As for the overnight forecasts, NatGasWeather observed only small changes to the outlook, with chilly temperatures over the central and northern portions of the country through Monday expected to transition to milder conditions starting around the middle of next week.

“This comfortable U.S. pattern is favored to continue into the first several days of May, providing a bearish bias to weather sentiment without hotter or colder trends,” the forecaster said.

May crude oil futures were up 39 cents to $20.26/bbl at around 8:30 a.m. ET, while May RBOB gasoline was trading about 2.7 cents higher at around 74.7 cents/gal.