In another disappointment for natural gas bulls in a winter largely devoid of serious cold, weather models over the weekend reduced the intensity of a stretch of frigid temperatures that had been expected this month, sending futures tumbling. The February Nymex contract was down 15.5 cents to $2.582/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

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Compared to forecasts late last week, the temperature outlook as of early Tuesday had “shifted solidly warmer,” according to Bespoke Weather Services.

Models over the weekend trended “more toward a dominant” positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation pattern and did so “while lessening the influence” of North Atlantic Oscillation blocking, Bespoke said. This would result “not only in less cold as we move into the latter part of January, but sets...