Nobody is questioning the downward direction of natural gas production over the past two months, a trend hastened by soft demand during a mild winter that put prices persistently near four-year lows.

Major exploration and production (E&P) companies, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. and EQT Corp., announced curtailments to activity during the first quarter – cutbacks that continue. But estimates showing production dropping from record levels around 107 Bcf/d late in 2023 and again in February to around 99 Bcf/d through much of April may be overstating the depths of the downshift, some analysts say. By extension, this may explain why more buyers have yet to step in and begin bidding up prices.

The thinking is that traders see massive amounts of supply in storage and are...